Stellar

Today's state: Stellar is trading at $0.158700 with a $5.1 billion market capitalization (rank #29). The price moved -0.44% over the past 24 hours and is -14.11% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -14.91% and the 90-day at +6.76%. Both long-term and short-term horizons are pointing the same direction down — historically the regime where forced selling and capitulation are most likely to be in their later stages.

Position vs cycle: Sitting more than 70% under its prior cycle high, the asset is deep in post-peak drawdown territory — a zone associated with late-stage bear phases or a permanent downward re-rating.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 33.5% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Bearish (34/100), against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop with cumulative pressure across 30/90-day windows.

To place XLM in the wider market, its 90-day return correlations against the two other largest layer-1s show whether it trades as crypto-market beta or on its own drivers. The Pearson figures across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.21 — a weak positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.21 — a weak positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.25 — a weak positive relationship.

When an asset correlates strongly with multiple majors, it is trading largely as market beta — the big caps set the direction and standalone outperformance is elusive. Weak or negative correlations instead signal idiosyncratic forces (its own news, sector rotation, narrative changes) capable of producing returns the broader market does not share.

Stellar (XLM) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $0.1587 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move down 0.44%, placing it at rank #24 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Stellar's current market cap stands at $5.14B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Stellar across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Stellar focuses on moving value efficiently. Its design prioritises cheap, quick, reliable transfers — the qualities that matter for payments and remittances — over hosting a broad application ecosystem.

By market value, Stellar sits at rank #29 — a top-50 asset. The project sits in the cross-border payments space, and launched in 2014. About 65% of the maximum XLM supply is in circulation today (32.39B of 50.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 83% below its all-time high of $0.9381 set in January 2018.

Stellar optimises its consensus and fee model for settlement: transactions confirm quickly and cheaply, and the protocol is deliberately narrower in scope than a smart-contract chain. The relevant adoption signal is payment and settlement usage — transaction counts, corridors served, and integrations — rather than DeFi total value locked.

By market value, Stellar sits at rank #29 — a top-50 asset. The project sits in the cross-border payments space, and launched in 2014. About 65% of the maximum XLM supply is in circulation today (32.39B of 50.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 83% below its all-time high of $0.9381 set in January 2018. Its fully-diluted valuation of $7.98B is about 1.6× the circulating market cap of $5.14B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

The practical role of Stellar is moving money: person-to-person payments, cross-border transfers and remittances, and settlement where speed and low cost beat programmability. Whether it accrues value depends on genuine transactional use rather than speculative churn.

Daily volume runs at about 1.1% of market capitalisation ($54.45M in the last 24 hours), in the normal band for a coin of this size and supportive of orderly entries and exits.

Stellar's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Approximately 64.8% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 35.2% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $8.0 billion stands at 1.6× the current circulating market cap of $5.1 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

The question that matters for a longer-term view is simple: does value accrual (burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary mechanics, growing ecosystem TVL) run ahead of new issuance, or behind it? Ahead, and price can compound quietly; behind, and it leans on continuous fresh demand to soak up the supply.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

For cross-asset context, monitor the dollar (a headwind when it strengthens), long-term Treasury yields (the discount rate on risk), gold (a sometime companion in monetary-debasement narratives), and the S&P 500 (often correlated with crypto on liquidity-driven swings even though crypto is popularly billed as uncorrelated).

Zooming in on Stellar, the most reliable leading indicator has tended to be crypto-native liquidity itself — aggregate stablecoin supply, open interest in futures, and exchange volume. Rising on-chain liquidity has historically pulled XLM up; draining liquidity has done the opposite. With a comparatively loose 90-day BTC correlation of +0.21, XLM has shown more idiosyncratic price behaviour than the average large-cap — its own catalysts can matter as much as the broad liquidity tide.

Payments-coin risks: competition from stablecoins and from faster or cheaper rails, regulatory treatment of money-transmission, and the challenge of achieving durable real-world payment volume rather than speculative turnover. Market-wide volatility, custody and macro-liquidity risks apply on top.