Avalanche

Today's state: Avalanche is trading at $6.65 with a $3.0 billion market capitalization (rank #35). The price moved +0.88% over the past 24 hours and is -10.32% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -3.00% and the 90-day at -28.16%.

Position vs cycle: A drawdown of more than 70% from the last cycle high puts the asset firmly in deep-bear territory, where recoveries have historically required a fresh demand catalyst rather than mere mean-reversion.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 80.2% annualized is high for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Weak (24/100), in a structurally weak state, down materially on every horizon that matters.

To place AVAX in the wider market, its 90-day return correlations against the two other largest layer-1s show whether it trades as crypto-market beta or on its own drivers. The Pearson figures across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.70 — a strong positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.76 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.84 — a very strong positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $6.65 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 0.88%, placing it at rank #11 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Avalanche's current market cap stands at $3.04B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Avalanche across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Avalanche positions itself as a general-purpose chain for decentralized applications. The investment thesis rests on ecosystem traction: active addresses, application total-value-locked, and developer mindshare, balanced against the throughput-versus-decentralisation compromises baked into its consensus.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a top-50 asset, ranked #35 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 64% of the maximum AVAX supply is in circulation today (457.94M of 720.00M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 95% below its all-time high of $145.67 set in November 2021.

Under the hood, Avalanche is a smart-contract Layer-1 using staked validators rather than mining to reach consensus. Validators put the token at risk as a bond, the protocol selects them to order transactions, and fees plus issuance reward honest participation. Developers deploy contracts that this validator set then executes.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a top-50 asset, ranked #35 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 64% of the maximum AVAX supply is in circulation today (457.94M of 720.00M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 95% below its all-time high of $145.67 set in November 2021. Its fully-diluted valuation of $4.72B is about 1.6× the circulating market cap of $3.04B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

The chain is used to deploy and run smart contracts, to stake for network security and yield, to pay transaction fees, and as the reserve collateral underpinning its on-chain economy. Its relevance scales with how much real application activity it hosts.

Daily volume runs at about 4.4% of market capitalisation ($133.29M in the last 24 hours), in the normal band for a coin of this size and supportive of orderly entries and exits.

Avalanche's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Approximately 63.6% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 36.4% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4.7 billion stands at 1.6× the current circulating market cap of $3.0 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

Whether the tokenomics help or hurt comes down to value accrual versus dilution — fee burns, reinvested staking yield and TVL growth on one side, scheduled emissions on the other. A favourable balance lets price grind higher without hype; an unfavourable one means the asset must keep attracting demand just to absorb issuance.

At the macro level, the variables that move this asset class most are the direction of US interest rates, the supply of dollar liquidity, and the state of global risk appetite. Crypto has behaved like a long-duration, high-beta risk asset: it tends to rally when real yields fall and the dollar softens, and to sell off when liquidity tightens.

To read crypto in a wider context, keep an eye on four markets — the dollar, where strength typically pressures risk assets; long-dated Treasury yields, which set the discount rate on future cash flows; gold, sometimes a parallel hard-money bet; and US equities, frequently correlated with crypto during liquidity-driven swings despite the popular "uncorrelated" label.

Zooming in on Avalanche, the most reliable leading indicator has tended to be crypto-native liquidity itself — aggregate stablecoin supply, open interest in futures, and exchange volume. Rising on-chain liquidity has historically pulled AVAX up; draining liquidity has done the opposite. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.70, AVAX's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Key risks include concentration of stake among a few large validators, exploits in the contracts deployed on the chain, fierce competition from other Layer-1s for the same developers and liquidity, evolving regulatory treatment of staking, and the reality that network value unwinds quickly if activity migrates elsewhere.