Aave

Today's state: Aave is trading at $85.71 with a $1.3 billion market capitalization (rank #59). The price moved -7.73% over the past 24 hours and is +23.24% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +11.70% and the 90-day at -12.63%. The 1-year picture remains negative, but the 30-day momentum has turned positive — often the early signature of trend change, though confirmation requires sustained 90-day strength.

Position vs cycle: The asset trades deep in the post-peak drawdown regime, more than 70% below its prior cycle high — typical of late-stage bear conditions or assets that have permanently re-rated lower.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 101.1% annualized is extreme for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Bearish (36/100), against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop with cumulative pressure across 30/90-day windows.

Beyond Bitcoin, AAVE's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.58 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.67 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.73 — a strong positive relationship.

High correlation across several references usually means the asset is mostly crypto-market beta: when BTC, ETH and SOL move, it moves too, and independent alpha is hard to find. Low or negative readings point to its own drivers — project-specific news, intra-crypto sector rotation or narrative shifts — that can decouple it from the broad market.

Aave (AAVE) is a decentralised-finance token, governing or fee-collecting on a DeFi protocol. It trades at $85.71 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move down 7.73%, placing it at rank #27 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Aave's current market cap stands at $1.30B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Aave across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Aave gives holders governance over one of the established DeFi protocols. Token value depends on protocol revenue, TVL, user growth, and the credibility of the governance process. Treat the token as equity in the protocol.

Aave currently ranks #59 by market capitalisation, making it a top-100 asset. About 95% of the maximum AAVE supply is in circulation today (15.19M of 16.00M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 87% below its all-time high of $666.03 set in May 2021.

Aave is a DeFi governance token: ownership of the token confers voting rights over the underlying protocol's parameters (fees, listed assets, treasury allocation) and, in some cases, a share of protocol revenue. The value of the token tracks the protocol's utility and revenue — not the price of any underlying asset.

Aave currently ranks #59 by market capitalisation, making it a top-100 asset. About 95% of the maximum AAVE supply is in circulation today (15.19M of 16.00M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 87% below its all-time high of $666.03 set in May 2021.

The token is mainly used to vote on protocol decisions, to earn fee-shares or rebates where revenue is distributed to stakers, as collateral on lending venues (for the larger names), and simply as a way to hold exposure to the protocol's growth.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 11% of market cap ($147.84M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

The supply story for Aave comes down to three things: how tokens are issued over time, how many are circulating now, and how far the fully-diluted valuation sits above the circulating market cap. At 95.0% of maximum supply already issued, the remaining issuance is a relatively small fraction of total potential supply. Sell pressure from future issuance is therefore limited. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1.4 billion stands at 1.1× the current circulating market cap of $1.3 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value-accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

At the top of the macro stack sit interest rates, dollar liquidity and risk appetite, and crypto has tended to amplify all three. Easing financial conditions and a weaker dollar have historically pulled the sector up; tightening liquidity and a firmer dollar have reliably pulled it back down.

A handful of traditional gauges tend to lead or confirm crypto moves: the dollar index (strength is a headwind), the 10-year yield (the price of risk capital), gold (an occasional fellow-traveller in debasement trades), and the S&P 500 (which often moves with crypto when liquidity, not fundamentals, is in the driver's seat).

Zooming in on Aave, the most reliable leading indicator has tended to be crypto-native liquidity itself — aggregate stablecoin supply, open interest in futures, and exchange volume. Rising on-chain liquidity has historically pulled AAVE up; draining liquidity has done the opposite. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.58, AAVE's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

The risks are protocol-specific: a smart-contract exploit can drain the treasury and dilute holders, a governance attack can capture voting power, revenue rises and falls with the DeFi cycle, rival protocols compete for the same liquidity, and the regulatory status of governance tokens is still unsettled.