Optimism

Today's state: Optimism is trading at $0.082100 with a $0.1 billion market capitalization (rank #161). The price moved -1.91% over the past 24 hours and is -19.75% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +0.00% and the 90-day at -36.17%.

Position vs cycle: The asset trades deep in the post-peak drawdown regime, more than 70% below its prior cycle high — typical of late-stage bear conditions or assets that have permanently re-rated lower.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 55.9% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Weak (23/100), in a structurally weak regime with material losses across every meaningful horizon.

Beyond Bitcoin, OP's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.45 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.60 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.57 — a moderate positive relationship.

When an asset correlates strongly with multiple majors, it is trading largely as market beta — the big caps set the direction and standalone outperformance is elusive. Weak or negative correlations instead signal idiosyncratic forces (its own news, sector rotation, narrative changes) capable of producing returns the broader market does not share.

Optimism (OP) is a Layer-2 scaling token, settling onto a base blockchain for security while delivering faster, cheaper transactions. It trades at $0.0821 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move down 1.91%, placing it at rank #23 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Optimism's current market cap stands at $146.03M, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Optimism across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Optimism is among the leading rollups settling to Ethereum, providing the cost-and-speed environment retail DeFi and applications increasingly demand. The L2 ecosystem has captured a meaningful share of Ethereum-equivalent transaction volume.

Optimism (OP) is a mid-cap asset in the broad top 250, ranked #161 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. Only about 41% of the eventual OP supply is circulating so far (1.78B of 4.29B), so future unlocks remain a meaningful dilution variable. It currently trades about 98% below its all-time high of $4.87 set in March 2024.

Optimism is a Layer-2 rollup that scales Ethereum: it executes transactions off-chain and posts compressed transaction data (and/or state proofs) back to Ethereum L1. This inherits Ethereum's security while delivering substantially cheaper transactions (typically 10–100× cheaper than L1).

Two main rollup categories: optimistic rollups assume transactions are valid and allow a challenge window for fraud proofs, while zk-rollups prove validity cryptographically. The native token typically pays for gas on the L2, secures sequencer auctions, and grants governance rights over upgrades.

Optimism (OP) is a mid-cap asset in the broad top 250, ranked #161 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. Only about 41% of the eventual OP supply is circulating so far (1.78B of 4.29B), so future unlocks remain a meaningful dilution variable. It currently trades about 98% below its all-time high of $4.87 set in March 2024. Its fully-diluted valuation of $353.91M is about 2.4× the circulating market cap of $146.03M, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

Primary use cases: cheap DeFi (the L2 host of choice for high-frequency strategies), retail-friendly application UX (lower fees enable consumer use cases not viable on L1), bridge destinations for capital seeking cheaper execution, and the substrate for emerging L2-native applications.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 17% of market cap ($24.97M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

Optimism's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Only 41.4% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning future emissions remain a meaningful source of structural sell pressure. Issuance velocity and unlock schedules become important variables in any longer-term thesis. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $0.4 billion stands at 2.4× the current circulating market cap of $0.1 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

Whether the tokenomics help or hurt comes down to value accrual versus dilution — fee burns, reinvested staking yield and TVL growth on one side, scheduled emissions on the other. A favourable balance lets price grind higher without hype; an unfavourable one means the asset must keep attracting demand just to absorb issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

Several traditional markets serve as useful cross-checks: a strong dollar (DXY) has tended to weigh on crypto; rising 10-year Treasury yields raise the cost of holding risk; gold occasionally trades as a parallel hard-money hedge; and US equities frequently move in sympathy with crypto when the driver is liquidity rather than fundamentals.

Zooming in on Optimism, the most reliable leading indicator has tended to be crypto-native liquidity itself — aggregate stablecoin supply, open interest in futures, and exchange volume. Rising on-chain liquidity has historically pulled OP up; draining liquidity has done the opposite. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.45, OP's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Specific risks: sequencer centralization (most rollups currently rely on a single sequencer the operator runs), upgradeability (admin keys can change rollup behavior), fraud-proof or validity-proof reliance (the security model depends on these working in practice), and ecosystem fragmentation across competing L2s.