Cardano

Today's state: Cardano is trading at $0.244400 with a $8.7 billion market capitalization (rank #14). The price moved +0.62% over the past 24 hours and is -11.45% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +0.00% and the 90-day at +57.31%.

Position vs cycle: A drawdown of more than 70% from the last cycle high puts the asset firmly in deep-bear territory, where recoveries have historically required a fresh demand catalyst rather than mere mean-reversion.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 76.1% annualized is high for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Neutral (47/100), with the timeframes pulling in different directions and no clean directional read.

Beyond Bitcoin, ADA's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.76 — a strong positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.69 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.70 — a strong positive relationship.

When an asset correlates strongly with multiple majors, it is trading largely as market beta — the big caps set the direction and standalone outperformance is elusive. Weak or negative correlations instead signal idiosyncratic forces (its own news, sector rotation, narrative changes) capable of producing returns the broader market does not share.

Cardano (ADA) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $0.2444 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 0.62%, placing it at rank #9 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Cardano's current market cap stands at $8.75B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Cardano across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Cardano is a programmable Layer-1 blockchain — a base settlement layer that other applications build on. How it fares depends less on any single feature than on whether developers keep shipping and users keep transacting on it relative to rival chains.

Cardano (ADA) is a top-25 asset, ranked #14 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 80% of the maximum ADA supply is in circulation today (35.80B of 45.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 92% below its all-time high of $3.10 set in September 2021.

Cardano runs its own Layer-1 chain secured by proof-of-stake. Instead of miners, a set of validators stakes the native asset to win the right to produce blocks; correct behaviour is rewarded and provably bad behaviour is penalised by slashing. That same token pays transaction fees and confers governance rights.

Cardano (ADA) is a top-25 asset, ranked #14 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 80% of the maximum ADA supply is in circulation today (35.80B of 45.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 92% below its all-time high of $3.10 set in September 2021. Its fully-diluted valuation of $10.89B is about 1.2× the circulating market cap of $8.75B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

The chain is used to deploy and run smart contracts, to stake for network security and yield, to pay transaction fees, and as the reserve collateral underpinning its on-chain economy. Its relevance scales with how much real application activity it hosts.

Daily volume runs at about 4.3% of market capitalisation ($376.69M in the last 24 hours), in the normal band for a coin of this size and supportive of orderly entries and exits.

The supply story for Cardano comes down to three things: how tokens are issued over time, how many are circulating now, and how far the fully-diluted valuation sits above the circulating market cap. Approximately 79.6% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 20.4% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $10.9 billion stands at 1.2× the current circulating market cap of $8.7 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

The question that matters for a longer-term view is simple: does value accrual (burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary mechanics, growing ecosystem TVL) run ahead of new issuance, or behind it? Ahead, and price can compound quietly; behind, and it leans on continuous fresh demand to soak up the supply.

At the macro level, the variables that move this asset class most are the direction of US interest rates, the supply of dollar liquidity, and the state of global risk appetite. Crypto has behaved like a long-duration, high-beta risk asset: it tends to rally when real yields fall and the dollar softens, and to sell off when liquidity tightens.

The cross-asset relationships worth watching: the dollar index (DXY), historically inversely correlated with crypto over longer windows; the 10-year Treasury yield, a proxy for the cost of risk capital; gold, which sometimes shares a "monetary hedge" framing with Bitcoin during regime changes; and the S&P 500, which during liquidity-driven moves often rhymes with crypto despite the "uncorrelated" narrative.

Narrowing to Cardano, the cleanest leading signal has usually been crypto-native liquidity — the combined trend in stablecoin supply, futures open interest and exchange turnover. When that pool of on-chain capital grows, ADA has tended to advance with it; when it drains, the move has typically gone into reverse. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.76, ADA's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Key risks include concentration of stake among a few large validators, exploits in the contracts deployed on the chain, fierce competition from other Layer-1s for the same developers and liquidity, evolving regulatory treatment of staking, and the reality that network value unwinds quickly if activity migrates elsewhere.