Polkadot

Today's state: Polkadot is trading at $1.21 with a $1.8 billion market capitalization (rank #6878). The price moved -0.41% over the past 24 hours and is -10.49% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +38.65% and the 90-day at +42.70%.

Position vs cycle: Sitting more than 70% under its prior cycle high, the asset is deep in post-peak drawdown territory — a zone associated with late-stage bear phases or a permanent downward re-rating.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 106.4% annualized is extreme for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Neutral (48/100), with a mixed multi-horizon profile and no clear directional bias.

Looking past Bitcoin alone, how closely DOT tracks the next two biggest layer-1s over 90 days indicates whether it is mostly market beta or something more independent. The daily-log-return correlations:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.48 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.44 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.49 — a moderate positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

Polkadot (DOT) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $1.21 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move down 0.41%, placing it at rank #13 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Polkadot's current market cap stands at $1.85B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Polkadot across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Polkadot is a base-layer blockchain built to host other applications. What ultimately drives it is not a single headline feature but durable demand — whether builders keep deploying and users keep transacting on it versus the many competing Layer-1s.

By market value, Polkadot sits at rank #6878 — a smaller-cap asset outside the top 250. About 95% of the maximum DOT supply is in circulation today (1.52B of 1.60B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 87% below its all-time high of $9.18 set in December 2024.

Polkadot secures a Layer-1 network through proof-of-stake: rather than mining, validators bond the native token, take turns proposing and confirming blocks, and are slashed if they misbehave. The asset doubles as the gas that pays for computation and as the unit of staking and governance.

By market value, Polkadot sits at rank #6878 — a smaller-cap asset outside the top 250. About 95% of the maximum DOT supply is in circulation today (1.52B of 1.60B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 87% below its all-time high of $9.18 set in December 2024.

The chain is used to deploy and run smart contracts, to stake for network security and yield, to pay transaction fees, and as the reserve collateral underpinning its on-chain economy. Its relevance scales with how much real application activity it hosts.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 11% of market cap ($194.40M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

Polkadot's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. At 95.1% of maximum supply already issued, the remaining issuance is a relatively small fraction of total potential supply. Sell pressure from future issuance is therefore limited.

The question that matters for a longer-term view is simple: does value accrual (burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary mechanics, growing ecosystem TVL) run ahead of new issuance, or behind it? Ahead, and price can compound quietly; behind, and it leans on continuous fresh demand to soak up the supply.

At the macro level, the variables that move this asset class most are the direction of US interest rates, the supply of dollar liquidity, and the state of global risk appetite. Crypto has behaved like a long-duration, high-beta risk asset: it tends to rally when real yields fall and the dollar softens, and to sell off when liquidity tightens.

Several traditional markets serve as useful cross-checks: a strong dollar (DXY) has tended to weigh on crypto; rising 10-year Treasury yields raise the cost of holding risk; gold occasionally trades as a parallel hard-money hedge; and US equities frequently move in sympathy with crypto when the driver is liquidity rather than fundamentals.

Zooming in on Polkadot, the most reliable leading indicator has tended to be crypto-native liquidity itself — aggregate stablecoin supply, open interest in futures, and exchange volume. Rising on-chain liquidity has historically pulled DOT up; draining liquidity has done the opposite. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.48, DOT's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Key risks include concentration of stake among a few large validators, exploits in the contracts deployed on the chain, fierce competition from other Layer-1s for the same developers and liquidity, evolving regulatory treatment of staking, and the reality that network value unwinds quickly if activity migrates elsewhere.