Arbitrum

Today's state: Arbitrum is trading at $0.212900 with a $1.2 billion market capitalization (rank #89). The price moved +1.00% over the past 24 hours and is -18.45% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -11.22% and the 90-day at +166.62%. Both long-term and short-term horizons are pointing the same direction down — historically the regime where forced selling and capitulation are most likely to be in their later stages.

Position vs cycle: A drawdown of more than 70% from the last cycle high puts the asset firmly in deep-bear territory, where recoveries have historically required a fresh demand catalyst rather than mere mean-reversion.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 195.4% annualized is extreme for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Neutral (58/100), with the timeframes pulling in different directions and no clean directional read.

Looking past Bitcoin alone, how closely ARB tracks the next two biggest layer-1s over 90 days indicates whether it is mostly market beta or something more independent. The daily-log-return correlations:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.43 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.43 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.48 — a moderate positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

Arbitrum (ARB) is a Layer-2 scaling token, settling onto a base blockchain for security while delivering faster, cheaper transactions. It trades at $0.2129 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 1.00%, placing it at rank #22 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Arbitrum's current market cap stands at $1.15B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Arbitrum across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Arbitrum is among the leading rollups settling to Ethereum, providing the cost-and-speed environment retail DeFi and applications increasingly demand. The L2 ecosystem has captured a meaningful share of Ethereum-equivalent transaction volume.

Arbitrum (ARB) is a top-100 asset, ranked #89 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 54% of the maximum ARB supply is in circulation today (5.40B of 10.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 91% below its all-time high of $2.40 set in January 2024, while sitting roughly 2.9× above its record low.

Arbitrum is a Layer-2 rollup that scales Ethereum: it executes transactions off-chain and posts compressed transaction data (and/or state proofs) back to Ethereum L1. This inherits Ethereum's security while delivering substantially cheaper transactions (typically 10–100× cheaper than L1).

Two main rollup categories: optimistic rollups assume transactions are valid and allow a challenge window for fraud proofs, while zk-rollups prove validity cryptographically. The native token typically pays for gas on the L2, secures sequencer auctions, and grants governance rights over upgrades.

Arbitrum (ARB) is a top-100 asset, ranked #89 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 54% of the maximum ARB supply is in circulation today (5.40B of 10.00B), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 91% below its all-time high of $2.40 set in January 2024, while sitting roughly 2.9× above its record low. Its fully-diluted valuation of $2.03B is about 1.8× the circulating market cap of $1.15B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

Primary use cases: cheap DeFi (the L2 host of choice for high-frequency strategies), retail-friendly application UX (lower fees enable consumer use cases not viable on L1), bridge destinations for capital seeking cheaper execution, and the substrate for emerging L2-native applications.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 21% of market cap ($238.12M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

To read Arbitrum's tokenomics, look at the issuance schedule, the share of supply already in circulation, and the gap between market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Approximately 54.0% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 46.0% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.0 billion stands at 1.8× the current circulating market cap of $1.2 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

Whether the tokenomics help or hurt comes down to value accrual versus dilution — fee burns, reinvested staking yield and TVL growth on one side, scheduled emissions on the other. A favourable balance lets price grind higher without hype; an unfavourable one means the asset must keep attracting demand just to absorb issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

A handful of traditional gauges tend to lead or confirm crypto moves: the dollar index (strength is a headwind), the 10-year yield (the price of risk capital), gold (an occasional fellow-traveller in debasement trades), and the S&P 500 (which often moves with crypto when liquidity, not fundamentals, is in the driver's seat).

For Arbitrum specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, ARB tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.43, ARB's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Specific risks: sequencer centralization (most rollups currently rely on a single sequencer the operator runs), upgradeability (admin keys can change rollup behavior), fraud-proof or validity-proof reliance (the security model depends on these working in practice), and ecosystem fragmentation across competing L2s.