The Graph

Today's state: The Graph is trading at $0.013117 with a $0.1 billion market capitalization (rank #174). The price moved -2.00% over the past 24 hours and is -4.60% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -19.70% and the 90-day at -47.04%.

Position vs cycle: A drawdown of more than 70% from the last cycle high puts the asset firmly in deep-bear territory, where recoveries have historically required a fresh demand catalyst rather than mere mean-reversion.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 38.2% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Weak (20/100), in a structurally weak regime with material losses across every meaningful horizon.

Looking past Bitcoin alone, how closely GRT tracks the next two biggest layer-1s over 90 days indicates whether it is mostly market beta or something more independent. The daily-log-return correlations:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.18 — a minimal positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.07 — a minimal positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.09 — a minimal positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

The Graph (GRT) is an oracle network token, used to pay nodes that feed off-chain data on-chain. It trades at $0.0131 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move down 2.00%, placing it at rank #191 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. The Graph's current market cap stands at $143.52M, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking The Graph across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

The Graph is part of the AI×crypto sector — networks attempting to capture value from the explosion in AI demand by providing the substrate on which AI services run (compute, data, identity). This is a narrative-heavy category, and prices have historically tracked AI-sector sentiment as much as any underlying network metric.

By market value, The Graph sits at rank #174 — a mid-cap asset in the broad top 250. It operates in the decentralized data indexing category, and launched in 2020. Essentially all of the GRT supply is already issued — roughly 10.94B of a 10.80B cap are in circulation — so future inflation is a non-factor. It currently trades about 100% below its all-time high of $2.84 set in February 2021.

The Graph sits at the intersection of artificial intelligence and crypto economics. The specific architecture varies: some networks pay token rewards to GPU providers contributing compute, some run a decentralized inference market, and some build proof-of-personhood / identity systems for the AI era. The unifying thread is using crypto economics to coordinate compute, data, or identity at scale outside of any single AI company's control.

By market value, The Graph sits at rank #174 — a mid-cap asset in the broad top 250. It operates in the decentralized data indexing category, and launched in 2020. Essentially all of the GRT supply is already issued — roughly 10.94B of a 10.80B cap are in circulation — so future inflation is a non-factor. It currently trades about 100% below its all-time high of $2.84 set in February 2021.

Typical use cases include paying for compute access, rewarding GPU providers, paying for inference, staking on data accuracy, and identity attestation. Real on-chain activity for most AI-crypto projects remains modest relative to market capitalization — meaning these are primarily narrative-driven assets at present.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 12% of market cap ($16.66M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

The Graph's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. At over 99% of maximum supply issued, future issuance pressure is effectively zero — the supply curve is now flat, and value accrual must come from network adoption rather than from supply schedule mechanics. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $0.2 billion stands at 1.1× the current circulating market cap of $0.1 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value-accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

A handful of traditional gauges tend to lead or confirm crypto moves: the dollar index (strength is a headwind), the 10-year yield (the price of risk capital), gold (an occasional fellow-traveller in debasement trades), and the S&P 500 (which often moves with crypto when liquidity, not fundamentals, is in the driver's seat).

Narrowing to The Graph, the cleanest leading signal has usually been crypto-native liquidity — the combined trend in stablecoin supply, futures open interest and exchange turnover. When that pool of on-chain capital grows, GRT has tended to advance with it; when it drains, the move has typically gone into reverse. With a comparatively loose 90-day BTC correlation of +0.18, GRT has shown more idiosyncratic price behaviour than the average large-cap — its own catalysts can matter as much as the broad liquidity tide.

Specific risks: narrative dependence (price tracks AI-sector sentiment more than network usage), regulatory exposure (especially for identity-related projects), competition from centralized AI providers with vastly better unit economics, and the open question of how much real AI compute actually needs to be decentralized to function. Volatility on AI-crypto tokens tends to be higher than the broad alt-coin average.