Ondo

Today's state: Ondo is trading at $0.501800 with a $1.6 billion market capitalization (rank #64). The price moved +2.66% over the past 24 hours and is -19.58% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +0.00% and the 90-day at +49.43%.

Position vs cycle: Sitting more than 70% under its prior cycle high, the asset is deep in post-peak drawdown territory — a zone associated with late-stage bear phases or a permanent downward re-rating.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 121.7% annualized is extreme for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Neutral (49/100), with a mixed multi-horizon profile and no clear directional bias.

Beyond Bitcoin, ONDO's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.50 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.50 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.54 — a moderate positive relationship.

When an asset correlates strongly with multiple majors, it is trading largely as market beta — the big caps set the direction and standalone outperformance is elusive. Weak or negative correlations instead signal idiosyncratic forces (its own news, sector rotation, narrative changes) capable of producing returns the broader market does not share.

Ondo (ONDO) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $0.5018 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 2.66%, placing it at rank #64 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Ondo's current market cap stands at $1.59B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Ondo across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Ondo is part of the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) sector — a growing category where traditional financial instruments are issued or wrapped on-chain to combine TradFi yield with crypto-native composability. RWA adoption has accelerated meaningfully with institutional participation from BlackRock (BUIDL), Franklin Templeton, Ondo Finance, and others.

Ondo currently ranks #64 by market capitalisation, making it a top-100 asset. Only about 32% of the eventual ONDO supply is circulating so far (3.16B of 10.00B), so future unlocks remain a meaningful dilution variable. It currently trades about 77% below its all-time high of $2.14 set in December 2024, while sitting roughly 2.2× above its record low.

Ondo tokenizes a real-world asset (typically US Treasuries, money-market fund shares, private credit, or commodity exposure) and brings that exposure on-chain. An off-chain custodian or fund issuer holds the underlying asset, and an equivalent on-chain token is minted, providing programmable access to TradFi yield or collateral.

The token's value tracks the underlying asset, not open-market speculation. Yield (where present) accrues to holders either via rebasing supply, automatic compounding, or distribution events specified by the issuer.

Ondo currently ranks #64 by market capitalisation, making it a top-100 asset. Only about 32% of the eventual ONDO supply is circulating so far (3.16B of 10.00B), so future unlocks remain a meaningful dilution variable. It currently trades about 77% below its all-time high of $2.14 set in December 2024, while sitting roughly 2.2× above its record low. Its fully-diluted valuation of $5.02B is about 3.2× the circulating market cap of $1.59B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

Primary use cases: on-chain access to US Treasury yield (the largest RWA category), collateral for crypto-native lending and structured products, treasury management for DAOs and crypto-native businesses, and on-chain settlement of TradFi-equivalent products. Adoption tracks regulatory clarity and the issuing institution's credibility.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 30% of market cap ($473.55M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

Ondo's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Only 31.6% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning future emissions remain a meaningful source of structural sell pressure. Issuance velocity and unlock schedules become important variables in any longer-term thesis. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5.0 billion stands at 3.2× the current circulating market cap of $1.6 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

Whether the tokenomics help or hurt comes down to value accrual versus dilution — fee burns, reinvested staking yield and TVL growth on one side, scheduled emissions on the other. A favourable balance lets price grind higher without hype; an unfavourable one means the asset must keep attracting demand just to absorb issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

For cross-asset context, monitor the dollar (a headwind when it strengthens), long-term Treasury yields (the discount rate on risk), gold (a sometime companion in monetary-debasement narratives), and the S&P 500 (often correlated with crypto on liquidity-driven swings even though crypto is popularly billed as uncorrelated).

For Ondo specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, ONDO tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.50, ONDO's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

Specific risks: issuer/custodian risk (the underlying asset depends on an off-chain entity's solvency and operational integrity), regulatory risk (RWA classification is jurisdiction-specific and actively evolving), redemption risk (some RWAs gate redemption by amount, holding period, or KYC status), smart contract risk in the on-chain wrapper, and liquidity risk in secondary markets (institutional RWAs may have thin on-chain liquidity outside primary issuance).