Avalanche

Today's state: Avalanche is trading at $7.23 with a $3.1 billion market capitalization (rank #39). The price moved +10.33% over the past 24 hours and is +2.59% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at +10.04% and the 90-day at -21.01%.

Position vs cycle: The asset trades deep in the post-peak drawdown regime, more than 70% below its prior cycle high — typical of late-stage bear conditions or assets that have permanently re-rated lower.

Volatility and structure: 30-day realized volatility of 58.3% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Bearish (35/100), against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop with cumulative pressure across 30/90-day windows.

Beyond Bitcoin, AVAX's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.66 — a strong positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.69 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.74 — a strong positive relationship.

When an asset correlates strongly with multiple majors, it is trading largely as market beta — the big caps set the direction and standalone outperformance is elusive. Weak or negative correlations instead signal idiosyncratic forces (its own news, sector rotation, narrative changes) capable of producing returns the broader market does not share.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a cryptocurrency, traded on global digital-asset markets. It trades at $7.23 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 10.33%, placing it at rank #39 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Avalanche's current market cap stands at $3.05B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

On this page you'll find a live, daily-refreshed dashboard tracking Avalanche across multiple data sources — price history going back several years, on-chain activity where available, fundamentals like circulating supply and dilution, top exchanges by volume, technical analysis using moving averages and RSI, and an algorithmic short, mid and long-term forecast. All figures are pulled from public APIs and cached locally; nothing here is investment advice.

Avalanche positions itself as a general-purpose chain for decentralized applications. The investment thesis rests on ecosystem traction: active addresses, application total-value-locked, and developer mindshare, balanced against the throughput-versus-decentralisation compromises baked into its consensus.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a top-50 asset, ranked #39 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 59% of the maximum AVAX supply is in circulation today (422.28M of 715.75M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 95% below its all-time high of $145.67 set in November 2021.

Under the hood, Avalanche is a smart-contract Layer-1 using staked validators rather than mining to reach consensus. Validators put the token at risk as a bond, the protocol selects them to order transactions, and fees plus issuance reward honest participation. Developers deploy contracts that this validator set then executes.

Avalanche (AVAX) is a top-50 asset, ranked #39 among all tracked tokens by capitalisation. About 59% of the maximum AVAX supply is in circulation today (422.28M of 715.75M), leaving a moderate emission stream still to come. It currently trades about 95% below its all-time high of $145.67 set in November 2021. Its fully-diluted valuation of $5.18B is about 1.7× the circulating market cap of $3.05B, a gap that signals issuance overhang to factor into any longer-term thesis.

In practice the token does four jobs: it pays gas for on-chain activity, it is staked to help secure the network and earn yield, it underpins the applications and DeFi collateral built on the chain, and it carries governance weight. Its value tracks how much genuine usage the chain attracts.

Daily turnover is unusually high at roughly 11% of market cap ($331.22M traded in 24 hours), the kind of liquidity that reflects an active news or trading cycle.

Avalanche's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Approximately 59.0% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 41.0% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5.2 billion stands at 1.7× the current circulating market cap of $3.1 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

The question that matters for a longer-term view is simple: does value accrual (burns, staking-yield reinvestment, deflationary mechanics, growing ecosystem TVL) run ahead of new issuance, or behind it? Ahead, and price can compound quietly; behind, and it leans on continuous fresh demand to soak up the supply.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto — Bitcoin in particular — has historically responded most strongly to shifts in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

To read crypto in a wider context, keep an eye on four markets — the dollar, where strength typically pressures risk assets; long-dated Treasury yields, which set the discount rate on future cash flows; gold, sometimes a parallel hard-money bet; and US equities, frequently correlated with crypto during liquidity-driven swings despite the popular "uncorrelated" label.

Narrowing to Avalanche, the cleanest leading signal has usually been crypto-native liquidity — the combined trend in stablecoin supply, futures open interest and exchange turnover. When that pool of on-chain capital grows, AVAX has tended to advance with it; when it drains, the move has typically gone into reverse. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.66, AVAX's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

The hazards to weigh: stake that concentrates in a handful of validators, bugs in the applications running on the chain, an unusually crowded field of competing L1s, unsettled regulation of staking rewards and MEV, and the hard truth that a base layer loses value fast if builders and users drift to a rival.