Filecoin

現在の状態: Filecoin is trading at $0.764000 with a $1.5 billion market capitalization (rank #87). The price moved +4.51% over the past 24 hours and is -18.46% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -40.64% and the 90-day at -18.64%. Both long-term and short-term horizons are pointing the same direction down — historically the regime where forced selling and capitulation are most likely to be in their later stages.

サイクル内の位置: The asset trades deep in the post-peak drawdown regime, more than 70% below its prior cycle high — typical of late-stage bear conditions or assets that have permanently re-rated lower.

ボラティリティと構造: 30-day realized volatility of 92.8% annualized is high for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Weak (20/100), in a structurally weak regime with material losses across every meaningful horizon.

Beyond Bitcoin, FIL's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.52 — a moderate positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.62 — a strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.72 — a strong positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

Filecoin (FIL) is グローバルなデジタル資産市場で取引される暗号通貨. It trades at $0.7640 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 5.67%, placing it at rank #26 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Filecoin's current market cap stands at $1.50B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

このページには、毎日更新されるライブダッシュボードがあり、Filecoinを複数のデータソースで追跡しています — 数年遡る価格履歴、利用可能な場合のオンチェーン活動、流通供給量と希薄化などのファンダメンタルズ、取引量別トップ取引所、移動平均線とRSIによるテクニカル分析、そしてアルゴリズムによる短期・中期・長期予測。すべての数値は公開APIから取得され、ローカルにキャッシュされています。投資助言ではありません。

Filecoin is a smart-contract platform competing for developer attention and application activity. Its value depends on user adoption, developer ecosystem, and the unique trade-offs its consensus mechanism offers (typically a combination of throughput, decentralization, and finality).

Filecoin はLayer-1プルーフ・オブ・ステークブロックチェーンです：バリデータはネイティブトークンを担保としてステークし、ブロックを提案・証言し、誠実な参加に対してステーキング報酬を得ます。悪意または過失のあるバリデータはスラッシュされます。ネイティブトークンは計算のためのガス、ステーキング担保、ガバナンスとして機能します。

Primary use cases: hosting decentralized applications, native staking for yield, securing the network via validator participation, paying gas for transactions, and serving as base-layer collateral for DeFi protocols built on the chain.

Filecoin's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. At over 99% of maximum supply issued, future issuance pressure is effectively zero — the supply curve is now flat, and value accrual must come from network adoption rather than from supply schedule mechanics.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets in 2026 is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto assets — and Bitcoin in particular — have historically responded most strongly to changes in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.52, FIL's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

The cross-asset relationships worth monitoring: the dollar index (DXY) — historically inversely correlated with crypto over longer windows; the 10-year Treasury yield — a proxy for the cost of risk capital; gold — which often shares "monetary hedge" framing with Bitcoin during certain regime changes; and the S&P 500 — which during liquidity-driven moves often rhymes with crypto despite the popular framing of crypto as uncorrelated.

For Filecoin specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, FIL tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses.

Specific risks: validator centralization, smart contract risk in the application layer, competitive pressure from rival L1s, regulatory uncertainty around staking rewards, MEV concerns, and reliance on continued developer and user adoption to maintain network value.