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June 8, 2026
Bitcoin BTC
$63,151.99 ▲ +1.05%
Bitcoin

Bitcoin

BTC Rank #1

ライブ価格 · マルチソースダッシュボード · 54 minutes前に更新

$63,151.99
▲ +1.05% (24h)
時価総額
$1.27T
24時間取引高
$1.44B
流通供給量
20.04M
BTC
最大供給量
21.00M
BTC
史上最高値
$124,658.54
Oct 2025
史上最安値
$60,884.62
01オンチェーン

次回半減期

ブロック報酬は約4年ごとに半減

推定日
Mar 15, 2028
残り日数
645
新報酬
1.5625 BTC
前回の半減期: Apr 19, 2024 サイクル進捗 54.7%

各半減期では、マイナーが受け取るブロック報酬が50%減少します。Bitcoin's issuance rate is hard-coded — this event is mathematically predictable, not subject to governance. 歴史的に、半減期は数ヶ月にわたる価格拡大に先行してきましたが、過去の実績は将来のリターンを保証するものではありません。

サイクルコンテキスト

半減期が過去と現在のサイクルをどう形作ってきたか

ビットコインの4年サイクルは半減期に固定されています:210,000ブロックごと(およそ4年)に、ブロック報酬 — そして新たなBTCが流通する速度 — が半分になります。スケジュールはプロトコルにハードコードされており、圧倒的な社会的合意なしには変更できないため、半減期は主要な資産クラスにおいて唯一信頼性をもって予測可能な供給側イベントとなっています。

直近の半減期は2024年4月19日、ブロック840,000で発生し、報酬を6.25 BTCから3.125 BTCに引き下げました。次回は2028年4月頃、ブロック1,050,000で予定されており、報酬は1.5625 BTCに低下します。各半減期はブロック報酬を約半分に減らす一方で、構造的需要(ETFフロー、財務配分、リテール購入)は安定または成長を続け、過去の複数四半期にわたる強気サイクルの始まりを特徴づけた需給の非対称性を生み出してきました。

過去の半減期後リターン:2012年サイクルは半減期から ピークまで約96倍(2013年11月ピーク〜1,150ドル)、2016年サイクルは約30倍(2017年12月ピーク〜19,800ドル)、2020年サイクルは約7.9倍(2021年11月ピーク〜69,000ドル)。市場の成熟とともにリターンは逓減する一方、半減期から約12〜18ヶ月続く複数四半期の拡張という方向性パターンは一貫しています。

現サイクル(2024年半減期)には追加的な構造変化があります — 半減期の3ヶ月前、2024年1月にスポットビットコインETFが承認されたことです。ETFは蓄積フェーズ中に1日あたり約2,000〜4,000 BTCを純買い越しで吸収しており、これは現在の3.125 BTC報酬での日次新規発行と同等の規模です。これは過去のどのサイクルにも存在しなかった恒久的な需要シンクであり、このサイクルのベースケースが過去のサイクルと異なる主要な構造的理由です。

Network activity

Live on-chain metrics · multiple data sources

Hash rate
759,825.9 EH/s
Total computing power securing the network
via mempool.space
Block height
952,744
Total blocks mined to date
via mempool.space
Difficulty
139.0T
Auto-adjusts every 2,016 blocks
via mempool.space
Avg. fee
2 sat/vB
Median fee for ~30-min confirmation
via mempool.space
Difficulty cycle
21.6%
1,580 blocks remaining
via mempool.space

Hashrate trend (90 days)

Network computing power · mempool.space

Current
830.2 EH/s
30d change
-15.9%
90d change
-11.8%
vs 90d high
-27.2%
1,140 EH/s 753 EH/s 03-08 04-07 05-08 06-07
Recent difficulty adjustments
May 29
+1.02%
May 15
+1.03%
May 2
+0.98%
Apr 17
+0.98%
Apr 3
+1.04%
Mar 20
+0.92%

Bitcoin's hashrate represents the total computing power dedicated to mining at any given moment. Higher hashrate means the network is more expensive to attack and reflects ongoing investment by miners — a quasi-fundamental signal that, over multi-quarter windows, tends to correlate with miner confidence in future BTC price.

The 90-day trend shows hashrate has declined by 11.8%, while the 30-day move of -15.9% shows the more recent direction. Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (about two weeks) to keep block time near the 10-minute target — the table above shows the most recent adjustments, each one resetting the cost basis of mining for the next epoch.

02スナップショット

マーケット動向

ライブ編集スナップショット — 更新ごとに数値が変化

現在の状態: Bitcoin is trading at $63,151.99 with a $1,265.3 billion market capitalization (rank #1). The price moved +3.72% over the past 24 hours and is -14.28% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -21.25% and the 90-day at -7.72%.

サイクル内の位置: A drawdown of this magnitude is within the typical correction range — historically resolved in either direction, often via a re-test of the prior peak before a definitive break.

ボラティリティと構造: 30-day realized volatility of 37.9% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Bearish (31/100), against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop with cumulative pressure across 30/90-day windows.

コンポジットスコア

Derived metrics composed from multi-horizon data

価格強度
30/100
Bearish

Composite of 24h/7d/30d/90d/1y returns weighted toward longer horizons.

流動性
30/100
Thin

24h volume / market cap = 0.105%.

ボラティリティ (30日)
38%
Moderate

Annualized std-dev of daily log returns.

史上最高値から
-50.0%
50%

% of all-time high currently held.

史上最安値から
2.5×
2.5x

Multiple over all-time low. Log scale.

Bitcoin's performance grid shows the asset gained 2.33% over the last 24 hours, with the 7-day picture 15.43% lower and the 30-day frame 22.31% lower. Over the trailing 365 days, the asset has delivered losses of 40.97%, against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop.

The asset currently trades 50.0% below its all-time high, deep in the post-peak drawdown regime where statistical mean-reversion historically matters less than narrative and liquidity flow. 30-day realized volatility sits at 38% annualized — moderate territory for a crypto asset of this size.

Bitcoin currently shows thin turnover that warrants caution on larger orders. 24-hour trading volume represents 0.105% of market capitalization — our liquidity-health composite scores this as Thin (30/100). This is on the lighter end of the top-100 range; large orders should be sliced into the market rather than executed at once.

As Bitcoin itself, this asset is the reference against which other coins' BTC correlation is measured. Bitcoin's own dominant correlations are with the broad risk-asset complex (S&P 500, Nasdaq) during liquidity contractions, and with gold and the dollar index during regime changes in macro sentiment.

パフォーマンスグリッド

% return across 9 horizons — heatmap by magnitude

1H
-0.03%
24H
+2.33%
7D
-15.43%
30D
-22.31%
3M
-8.95%
6M
-32.77%
1Y
-40.97%
ATH
-50.02%
from ATH
ATL
2.5×
from ATL
03価格

価格チャート

USD · daily candles · CoinGecko + Binance

Loading chart…

Data refreshed 54 minutes ago · auto-updates daily

価格履歴表

Last 30 trading days · daily OHLC

Date Open High Low Close Change
2026-06-07 $60,884.62 $62,960.00 $60,746.00 $62,304.86 +2.33%
2026-06-06 $61,056.47 $61,530.05 $59,500.00 $60,884.62 -0.28%
2026-06-05 $63,885.99 $63,978.00 $59,130.91 $61,056.47 -4.43%
2026-06-04 $64,142.75 $64,764.32 $61,383.56 $63,885.99 -0.40%
2026-06-03 $66,760.84 $67,516.00 $64,092.49 $64,142.75 -3.92%
2026-06-02 $71,408.90 $71,408.90 $66,193.00 $66,760.83 -6.51%
2026-06-01 $73,674.39 $74,092.00 $70,686.68 $71,408.90 -3.08%
2026-05-31 $73,884.38 $74,275.66 $73,400.00 $73,674.39 -0.28%
2026-05-30 $73,460.78 $74,143.76 $73,216.00 $73,884.38 +0.58%
2026-05-29 $73,617.52 $74,514.10 $72,512.49 $73,460.78 -0.21%
2026-05-28 $74,449.31 $74,590.77 $72,582.82 $73,617.51 -1.12%
2026-05-27 $75,930.01 $76,174.15 $74,243.99 $74,449.30 -1.95%
2026-05-26 $77,322.01 $78,080.00 $75,677.97 $75,930.01 -1.80%
2026-05-25 $77,064.96 $77,905.52 $76,914.25 $77,322.01 +0.33%
2026-05-24 $76,752.00 $77,543.15 $76,108.00 $77,064.96 +0.41%
2026-05-23 $75,539.50 $77,404.18 $74,289.60 $76,752.01 +1.61%
2026-05-22 $77,615.52 $77,900.00 $75,359.18 $75,539.50 -2.67%
2026-05-21 $77,552.24 $78,200.00 $76,719.47 $77,615.52 +0.08%
2026-05-20 $76,834.36 $77,853.04 $76,516.74 $77,552.23 +0.93%
2026-05-19 $77,001.88 $77,414.62 $76,144.71 $76,834.36 -0.22%
2026-05-18 $77,457.67 $77,800.00 $76,051.00 $77,001.87 -0.59%
2026-05-17 $78,148.05 $78,599.99 $76,735.16 $77,457.67 -0.88%
2026-05-16 $79,113.20 $79,227.77 $77,640.00 $78,148.05 -1.22%
2026-05-15 $81,090.00 $81,664.45 $78,659.00 $79,113.21 -2.44%
2026-05-14 $79,313.61 $82,048.13 $78,922.00 $81,089.99 +2.24%
2026-05-13 $80,504.47 $81,324.64 $78,754.65 $79,313.61 -1.48%
2026-05-12 $81,745.66 $81,788.00 $79,843.59 $80,504.47 -1.52%
2026-05-11 $82,210.07 $82,380.00 $80,462.97 $81,745.65 -0.56%
2026-05-10 $80,678.41 $82,479.32 $80,279.77 $82,210.07 +1.90%
2026-05-09 $80,193.18 $81,080.00 $80,129.85 $80,678.40 +0.61%

テクニカル分析

RSI · MACD · moving averages · Bollinger

RSI (14)
22.3
oversold
03070100
MACDシグナル
Bearish
Histogram: -1,373.02
移動平均
MA 50
$75,825.57
-17.83%
MA 100
$73,029.04
-14.68%
MA 200
$78,506.28
-20.64%
レジスタンス
  • R$68,698.70
  • R$69,310.00
  • R$69,988.83
  • R$70,983.00
サポート
  • S$60,000.00

マルチモデル価格予測

3-model ensemble · TA + statistical + peer-relative

Short term · 24h–7d
Medium conf
24–48 hours
Low $53,996.66 -14.5%
Mid $58,714.86 -7.0%
High $64,456.80 +2.1%
貢献モデル
Technical · Statistical · Relative
Mid term · 7–30d
Medium conf
7–30 days
Low $49,063.92 -22.3%
Mid $55,159.05 -12.7%
High $63,787.10 +1.0%
貢献モデル
Technical · Statistical · Relative
Long term · 3–6mo
Medium conf
3–12 months
Low $29,518.46 -53.3%
Mid $43,652.69 -30.9%
High $68,040.06 +7.7%
貢献モデル
Technical · Statistical · Relative
モデル別内訳 +
Model Horizon Low Mid High Method
Technical Short $55,950.30 $60,412.35 $64,874.41 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Technical Mid $54,935.37 $56,738.22 $63,089.92 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Technical Long $29,646.55 $42,352.22 $55,057.88 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Monte Carlo Short $55,274.48 $61,795.07 $69,084.87 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Monte Carlo Mid $47,749.86 $60,149.22 $75,768.36 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Monte Carlo Long $28,654.30 $50,439.46 $88,787.34 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Peer comparison Short $50,339.26 $52,910.42 $57,868.44 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category
Peer comparison Mid $44,944.54 $46,926.31 $48,509.27 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category
Peer comparison Long $30,542.59 $35,904.14 $53,359.21 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category

The forecast above combines three independent models per the STNews methodology:

  • Technical model projects ranges from moving-average, ATR, Bollinger band and trend-slope inputs — useful when the asset is in a clean trending or ranging regime.
  • Statistical (Monte Carlo) model uses the 90-day distribution of daily log returns to project the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile prices at each horizon — useful as an unbiased baseline that does not assume any trend continuation.
  • Peer-relative model compares against same-category coins of similar market cap, projecting where this asset would trade if it matched the median, lower-quartile and upper-quartile peer return profiles — useful as a sanity check that anchors to broader sector behavior.

The ensemble forecast shown is a weighted average (40% statistical · 30% technical · 30% peer-relative). The confidence badge reflects how closely the three models agree: tighter agreement → higher confidence; wider disagreement → lower confidence, indicating that the asset is in a regime where statistical models alone are unreliable.

Disclaimer: These forecasts are algorithmic estimates derived from public price data using moving averages, Bollinger bands, Monte Carlo simulation of historical log returns, and peer-group comparison. They are not investment advice and should not be used to make trading decisions. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and can lose all value. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. See our forecast methodology for full details.
04オンチェーン

資産間相関 (90日)

Pearson correlation of daily log returns vs top L1 references

Bitcoin
self-ref
Ethereum
+0.90
Strong
-10+1
Solana
+0.87
Strong
-10+1

Beyond Bitcoin, BTC's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

  • Ethereum reference: +0.90 — a very strong positive relationship.
  • Solana reference: +0.87 — a very strong positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

05コンテキスト

Bitcoin について

Bitcoin (BTC) is 独自の独立したブロックチェーンネットワーク上で動作するレイヤー1暗号資産. It trades at $63,151.99 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 1.05%, placing it at rank #1 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Bitcoin's current market cap stands at $1.27T, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

このページには、毎日更新されるライブダッシュボードがあり、Bitcoinを複数のデータソースで追跡しています — 数年遡る価格履歴、利用可能な場合のオンチェーン活動、流通供給量と希薄化などのファンダメンタルズ、取引量別トップ取引所、移動平均線とRSIによるテクニカル分析、そしてアルゴリズムによる短期・中期・長期予測。すべての数値は公開APIから取得され、ローカルにキャッシュされています。投資助言ではありません。

Bitcoin (BTC) is the original cryptocurrency: a decentralized, peer-to-peer digital monetary network proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto in October 2008 and launched in January 2009. With a hard-capped supply of 21 million coins and a predictable issuance schedule that halves every four years, it was designed as digital sound money — credibly scarce, censorship-resistant, and verifiable without trusting any third party.

Bitcoin's value proposition is deliberately narrow. It does not aim to be programmable money, the substrate for an application platform, or a high-throughput payments rail. It aims to be the most resilient, most credibly neutral, and most predictably scarce monetary asset in human history — and the metric that matters most is its survival and security over decades, not its block time or transaction throughput in a given quarter.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,152 with a market capitalization of $1,265 billion, representing roughly 50% of all cryptocurrency value. It is widely accepted as a store-of-value reserve asset by individuals, corporate treasuries, sovereign entities, and — since the January 2024 spot-ETF approvals — large-scale institutional allocators.

STNews Analyst Note

By market value Bitcoin (BTC) sits inside the top ten, trading at $63,151.99 as of the latest snapshot. BTC is +1.05% over 24 hours, -4.60% over the past week, -3.74% over 30 days, putting it among the weekly underperformers across the top 250 by market capitalisation. Bitcoin trades 49% off its all-time high of $124,658.54, a level reached 8 months ago. Roughly 95% of BTC's total supply is liquid today (20.04M of 21.00M), with the balance scheduled for gradual release over time.

Trading volume is light versus market value — only about 0.1% of capitalisation changes hands daily — so larger orders can move price more than they would for higher-liquidity peers. On a one-year view BTC has lost 32.0%, against a broader crypto-market backdrop that closed the period roughly flat after several volatile quarters.

仕組み — Bitcoin

ビットコインはプルーフ・オブ・ワーク・マイニングによって保護されています:マイナーは暗号パズルを解くために競争し、最初に解いた者が次のトランザクションブロックを公開してブロック報酬を獲得します。ネットワークは2,016ブロックごと(約2週間)にパズルの難易度を調整し、オンラインの計算能力に関係なく約10分ごとに新しいブロックが生成されるようにします。ビットコインにはスマートコントラクト、ステーキング、バリデータセット、オンチェーンガバナンスがありません — 意図的に単一目的の金融ネットワークとして設計されています。

供給量は2,100万BTCに上限が設けられており、ブロック報酬は210,000ブロックごと(約4年)に半減します。直近の半減期では2024年4月に報酬が3.125 BTCに減少しました。次回は2028年4月頃に1.5625 BTCになると予測されています。各半減期は新規供給スケジュールを圧縮し、歴史的に4年サイクルの構造的転換点をマークしてきました。

ベースレイヤーのスループットは意図的に制限されており、平均で約7トランザクション/秒です。より大量のユースケースはセカンドレイヤー、特にライトニングネットワーク上で動作します。ライトニングネットワークはビットコインによって保護される支払いチャネルを使用して、高頻度・低手数料のトランザクションを処理します。

ユースケース — Bitcoin

ビットコインの主な用途は、その金融ネットワーク設計を反映しています:

  • 価値の保存。主要な用途。個人、企業(特にMicroStrategy改めStrategy、約250,000 BTC保有)、および主権政府は、デジタル版ゴールドとしてBTCを保有しています — 信頼性の高い希少性、許可なく国境を越えて移動可能、単一の管轄区域の金融政策の外。
  • 決済レイヤー。ビットコインは、スピードよりもファイナリティとカウンターパーティーフリーの決済が重要な高額・低頻度のトランザクションの決済レイヤーとしてますます利用されています。
  • Lightningによる支払い。ライトニングネットワークは、ほぼ即時、サブセント手数料での支払いを可能にし、通貨不安定地域での採用が進み、送金レールとしても拡大しています。
  • 担保。BTCは、集中型・分散型の貸付プラットフォームで最も広く受け入れられている暗号資産担保の形態です。
  • ETFの準備資産。現物ビットコインETF(IBIT、FBTC、BITBなど)は、集合的に100万BTC以上を保有しており、伝統的なブローカーアカウントを通じてアクセス可能になっています。

ビットコインが使われない用途:スマートコントラクト、分散型アプリケーション、NFT(Ordinalsは限定的なオーバーレイ)、利回り生成型ステーキング。プログラマビリティを必要とするものは別のネットワークで動作します。

トークノミクス

Supply schedule & distribution

Circulating vs locked vs unminted
  • Circulating supply: 20.04M BTC — tokens actively trading and held by the public
  • Total supply: 20.04M BTC — all tokens minted to date (including those locked or held by the issuer)
  • Max supply: 21.00M BTC — the protocol-defined upper limit (if any) on lifetime issuance
  • Issued to date: 95.4% of max supply

Bitcoin's supply schedule directly affects its long-term inflation rate and, by extension, how dilutive future issuance will be to existing holders. A coin near full dilution behaves very differently from one that still has 60% of its supply waiting to be unlocked.

Supply economics

Issuance pressure, dilution, and structural value accrual

Bitcoin's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. At 95.4% of maximum supply already issued, the remaining issuance is a relatively small fraction of total potential supply. Sell pressure from future issuance is therefore limited.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

トレーダーのメモ

コイン種別ごとの戦術的解釈

For Bitcoin, the tactical framework that has historically mattered most is the four-year cycle anchored to the halving. The current cycle's position determines whether the strategic posture is accumulation (early-cycle, post-halving) or distribution-aware (late-cycle, parabolic). Network-health metrics — hashrate, difficulty trajectory, mempool fees — provide the same kind of signal for BTC that earnings provide for equities: the underlying business of mining is either growing or contracting, and the price tends to follow over multi-quarter windows.

The Price Strength composite at 31/100 reads as bearish. Combined with the 49%% from all-time high, this is the kind of setup that has historically rewarded patience: careful entries near support outperform chasing rebounds. Position sizing should reflect that PoW-chain volatility tends to amplify both directions, with single-week moves of 15%+ entirely normal.

Developer activity

On-chain projects live or die by code shipped · via GitHub

Stars
89,276
38,984 forks
30d commits
100
18 active authors
Open issues
678
primarily C++
Last release
v31.0
2026-04-20
Developer Activity Index
85/100
Very active
Stars
87/100
Commits
90/100
Contributors
85/100
Releases
75/100
30-day commits
2026-05-10 Total: 100 commits 2026-06-08
Recent releases
  • v31.0 · Bitcoin Core 31.0 2026-04-20
  • v28.4 · Bitcoin Core 28.4 2026-04-06
  • v29.3 · Bitcoin Core 29.3 2026-02-11
  • v30.2 · Bitcoin Core 30.2 2026-01-13
  • v30.1 · Bitcoin Core 30.1 2026-01-02

Bitcoin's public repository (bitcoin/bitcoin) shows 89,276 stars, 100 commits over the trailing 30 days from 18 active contributors, and the most recent release on 2026-04-20. Combined into our composite Developer Activity Index, the project reads as very active (85/100) — useful as a quasi-fundamental signal alongside on-chain metrics and market pricing.

06アクション

Markets & exchanges

Top trading pairs by 24h volume

# Exchange Pair Last price 24h volume Trust
1 Binance BTC/USDT $63,151.99 $1.44B A+
2 Coinbase BTC/USD $63,158.31 $315.91M A+
3 OKX BTC/USDT $63,145.67 $201.03M A
4 Bybit BTC/USDT $63,164.62 $157.95M A
5 Kraken BTC/USD $63,139.36 $114.87M A

Initial rows server-rendered from our verified pipeline (binance-v2). Data-only. STNews does not place affiliate links here. See our affiliate disclosure.

If you'd bought Bitcoin...

ROI calculator · historical close prices

BTC Bought
at
Value today
at $63,151.99
Total return

Calculated on daily close prices. Does not include trading fees, taxes, or staking yields. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Converter

Rate: 1 BTC = $63,151.99

Compared to peers

Price, market cap, volume, supply

Coin7d trendPriceMarket Cap24h Vol24h %7d %
Bitcoin BTC $63,151.99 $1.27T $1.44B +1.05% -4.60%
Ethereum ETH $1,665.67 $201.02B $739.68M +2.02% -5.79%
Dogecoin DOGE $0.0854 $12.66B $61.31M +0.68% -6.29%
Litecoin LTC $42.88 $3.31B $17.29M +0.89% -8.92%
Monero XMR $118.70 $2.19B $574.68K +4.77% -6.72%
Solana SOL $65.92 $38.81B $168.15M +1.51% -13.42%
BNB BNB $597.39 $83.15B $86.91M +0.74% -3.52%
Cardano ADA $0.1637 $7.37B $34.92M -1.21% -11.45%
07見通し

Market sentiment

Crypto Fear & Greed Index · alternative.me

12
Extreme Fear
2026-06-07

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index aggregates volatility, market momentum, social media activity, dominance and Google Trends data into a single 0–100 score updated daily. Today's reading is 12 — Extreme Fear.

Extreme fear (below 25) historically signals buying opportunities for contrarians, while extreme greed (above 75) often precedes corrections. The index works best as one input among many, not as a standalone trading signal.

Past 30 days

Macro & cross-asset context

How macro liquidity and cross-asset moves frame the trade

The macro backdrop for crypto assets in 2026 is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto assets — and Bitcoin in particular — have historically responded most strongly to changes in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

The cross-asset relationships worth monitoring: the dollar index (DXY) — historically inversely correlated with crypto over longer windows; the 10-year Treasury yield — a proxy for the cost of risk capital; gold — which often shares "monetary hedge" framing with Bitcoin during certain regime changes; and the S&P 500 — which during liquidity-driven moves often rhymes with crypto despite the popular framing of crypto as uncorrelated.

For Bitcoin specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, BTC tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses.

リスク

プルーフ・オブ・ワーク金融ネットワークとしてのビットコインに固有のリスク:

  • マイニング集中。上位3つのマイニングプールが世界のハッシュレートの50%以上を集合的に支配しています。単一のプールが歴史的に悪意ある行動をとったことはありませんが、この集中は構造的リスクです。
  • エネルギーと規制リスク。ビットコインマイニングの電力フットプリントは政治的な注目を持続的に集めています。管轄区域固有の禁止(中国2021)は歴史的に短期的なハッシュレート低下を引き起こしましたが、ネットワークを長期的に損なうことはありませんでした。
  • 量子コンピューティング(long-tail)。十分に高度な量子コンピュータは理論上、楕円曲線署名を破ることができます。これは数十年規模のタイムラインであり、コミュニティは積極的にポスト量子アップグレードを研究しています。
  • マクロ相関。「非相関資産」の物語にもかかわらず、BTCは流動性収縮時にリスク資産(ナスダック)と歴史的に相関してきました。分散投資の利益は実在しますが絶対的ではありません。
  • 保管。自己保管には運用上の注意が必要です。秘密鍵の喪失は永久的です。保管ソリューションは取引相手リスクを再導入します。
  • ボラティリティ。ビットコインは歴史的に年率60〜80%の実現ボラティリティをもたらしてきました — 株式の何倍にもなります。ポジションサイジングはこれを反映しなければなりません。
08もっと

Frequently asked questions

Who created Bitcoin?

Bitcoin was created by an anonymous developer or group of developers using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The whitepaper was published in October 2008 and the first block was mined on January 3, 2009. Satoshi's real identity has never been verified.

What is the maximum supply of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has a hard-coded maximum supply of 21 million coins. The remaining supply will be released gradually through the mining reward, which halves approximately every four years. The final Bitcoin is projected to be mined around the year 2140.

How is Bitcoin different from other cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency and remains the largest by market capitalization. It is primarily designed as a store of value and a censorship-resistant payment network, not a platform for smart contracts or decentralized applications. Other major networks like Ethereum focus on programmability; Bitcoin focuses on simplicity, security and predictable monetary policy.

Latest STNews coverage of Bitcoin

All BTC stories →

In the news

Headlines from major crypto outlets · refreshed every 6h

cryptoslate 4 hours ago

Morgan Stanley’s Galaxy deal points to Bitcoin’s next institutional test: lending collateral

Morgan Stanley announced on June 5 that eligible wealth management clients can now lend Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana to Galaxy Digital and receive shares of spot crypto exchange-traded products in return. Galaxy will coordinate an in-kind creation with an authorized participant, then deliver ETP shares directly into the client's chosen account. Onboarding timelines that previously […] The po…

newsbtc 5 hours ago

Bitcoin Trader Says Something Extremely Bad Is Coming Today, Here’s What

Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price suffered a major crash, moving below $60,000 for the first time in this cycle. In contrast, there has been some recovery, with the price moving above $62,000 on Sunday, as investors moved back into the market. However, this recovery seems to only be a stop-gap for now because, according to one analyst, there is something bad coming Bitcoin’s way and it’s goi…

utoday 6 hours ago

32 BTC Ruse? Critic Predicts Michael Saylor Will Unveil Massive Buy

Strategy’s Michael Saylor has ignited rampant market speculation with a cryptic "32?" post on X, leading both fervent supporters and harsh critics to predict an imminent, massive "buy-the-dip" announcement.

The Block 8 hours ago

Bitcoin reclaims $63,000 in ‘oversold relief rally’; South Korea’s KOSPI plunges 8%

Presto's Min Jung told The Block that KOSPI's crash may have had some impact on bitcoin's recovery, but not substantially.

ambcrypto 8 hours ago

‘Bitcoin isn’t dead’ – Novogratz weighs in as BTC rebounds to $62K

Here's why the current drawdown in the market should not scare away crypto investors.

utoday 8 hours ago

XRP, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Analysis for June 8: Are Top-Tier Assets Ready to Bounce?

The market is unwell, but the fact that most of it is extremely oversold creates a lot of opportunities for investors.

Disclaimer & data sources

The information on this page is provided for general educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; you can lose some or all of your capital. STNews does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Data sources: CoinGecko · CoinPaprika · Binance · DefiLlama · alternative.me Fear & Greed Index · Editorial standards: /editorial-guidelines · Affiliate disclosure: /affiliate-disclosure

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