Polymarket blocked in Indonesia as Prabowo exit bets spark heat

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The Indonesian Ministry of Communication and Information Technology formally blocked Polymarket on May 23, 2026. That $2.8 million wagered by users in a matter of weeks got the government’s full attention. Bets focused heavily on whether President Prabowo would exit before his term ended, driving sharp regulatory scrutiny and widespread public concern.

Kominfo justified the ban as a direct move against illegal online gambling across Southeast Asia.

Polymarket’s Indonesian traffic soared in May 2026. Jakarta-based research firm Cint found domestic site visits tripled from April to May, fueled by speculation on Prabowo’s future.

Indonesia’s strict gambling ban under Law No. 7 of 1974 leaves almost no legal room for prediction platforms. Cint data shows event-driven political contracts outpaced sports bets by more than twofold among Indonesian users during the frenzy. Over 40% of national wager volume in the two weeks before The Block went into Prabowo-exit contracts.

Daily active Indonesian users peaked at 12,000 during May 12–18, up fivefold from March. Polymarket odds on a Prabowo resignation soared from just 12% in early May to over 31% at the rally’s high, tracking cabinet rumors and escalating street protests.

Speculation without delay spilled over into contracts about vice presidential succession and snap elections. Trading volumes in these areas surged at a 68% week-on-week rate, according to Cint.

The scale and speed of Indonesian betting dwarfed regional competitors, including PredictWise.

The Polymarket crackdown drove a parallel boom in digital subscription sales at local news outlets. Leading Indonesian publications saw a 57% jump in premium gift article transactions in the two weeks after the ban.

That spike in subscriptions reflects how insatiable the appetite for trustworthy news became. A Universitas Indonesia professor explained that Indonesian criminal law extends to anyone indirectly enabling gambling, including prediction market platforms when political contracts are at stake.

Days after the ban, Indonesian users created new Telegram “bet-sharing” groups, each growing to thousands of members. These groups distributed VPN resources and Polymarket mirror links. According to The Jakarta Post, at least 19 Indonesian IP ranges were seen re-accessing Polymarket via alternate routes within 72 hours.

Kompas reported a 35% surge in new user sign-ups the week after the ban — the highest one-week total since the 2024 election period.

Social media personalities and Telegram betfluencers faced immediate regulatory risk and pivoted overnight. Many paused Polymarket promotions and instead produced explainers on new laws and VPN tutorials.

Premium article prices stabilized at Rp 35,000 per story after the ban — up from Rp 26,000 in early 2025. Higher costs mirrored the demands of reporting under new compliance rules and the cost of investigative work. The Indonesian digital journalism market now mirrors other premium Southeast Asian outlets.

Analytics indicate up to 41% of Polymarket-focused Telegram users also subscribed to premium news sources from May 19–24, per Cint.

Rp 35,000 — Per Premium Article (May 2026)

Internal polling from May 2026 found 71% of Indonesians considered paywalled journalism critical for countering misinformation across the Polymarket story. Over 56% were willing to pay the Rp 35,000 per article sticker — compared to only 42% a year earlier.

Regional cybersecurity trackers observed that proxy-sharing activity fell by 60% after the block.

Government monitoring counted 39 unique Indonesian-targeted campaigns in the first week after the block, up from an average of just five per week earlier in 2026.

Kominfo executed the Polymarket block after internal flags for “sizable-scale, unsanctioned betting that directly impacts sovereign stability.” Coordination involved National Police and the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK).

Social networks measured 32,000 mentions across Twitter and TikTok from May 17–24 alone.

According to The Jakarta Post, the Polymarket story took over national headlines as betting volumes surged in May 2026. Ministry of Communication officials outlined the rationale as newsrooms tracked the story with front-page urgency. Legal warnings about criminalization and asset seizure for illegal prediction market use became mainstream. Huge demand for reliable legal updates triggered a spike in digital news subscriptions.

En.antaranews.com reported May 24, 2026, that Ministry of Communication and Informatics officials held a lengthy press conference on the Polymarket block. Authorities reiterated complete opposition to all online gambling involving politics. Security agencies tracked substantial risk from betting platforms shaping political narratives. Kominfo spokespeople confirmed repeated violations of national cybersecurity and gambling laws. Partnerships with OJK and financial forensics teams tracked new funding sources and enforced secondary bans. Regulators claimed full privacy law compliance while monitoring users at both DNS and IP levels.

Indonesia’s crackdown mirrors moves taken by other Asian nations aiming to curb political risk from prediction markets. On September 17, 2025, China banned 63 platforms, including PolyVote, after leadership-related bets passed $1 billion in a single quarter. India’s regulators banned FutureMarkets on January 10, 2026, after election bets hit $39 million (₹320 crore) in just two weeks. South Korea blocked PredictWise and InVote on March 8, 2026, as political bets surged.

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