Kalshi backs prediction markets lobby group with former Trump official

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Kalshi launched Americans for Fair Markets, a Washington advocacy group chaired by former Trump official Mick Mulvaney. The initiative arrives as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission intensifies scrutiny of event-based contracts. It’s a bold move in a high-stakes regulatory battle.

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Polymarket & Kalshi, as Trump said, have turned the whole world into a casino—including war & national secrets. Trump’s CFTC allowed this to happen. There’s a fix—set real rules on these prediction markets like my Prediction Market Security & Integrity Act. https://t.co/Rqr0XsZlhW

— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) April 24, 2026

Kalshi unveiled Americans for Fair Markets, an advocacy group to help shape policymakers’ perception of prediction markets.

Kalshi formally announced Americans for Fair Markets on May 24, 2026.

He brings Capitol Hill connections and deep policy experience.

The gaming industry’s $4 million lobbying spend over the past 18 months shows how high the stakes have climbed. News.kalshi.com reports Americans for Fair Markets will launch an “education and engagement” campaign targeting lawmakers on relevant Senate and House committees over the summer.

Leadership expects to spend more than $2 million in its first year on lobbying, legal research, and public relations.

• Key purpose:Combat industry misinformation and advocate for regulated event contracts.
• Budget:$2 million+ planned for year one.
• Leadership:Mick Mulvaney, former Trump chief of staff, as chair.

Kalshi News

Kalshi has been among the few CFTC-regulated event contract platforms to publicly challenge gaming industry narratives since its founding in 2020. The company won a CFTC-designated contract markets license in November 2021. Its “Will the Fed raise rates?” and “2026 Presidential Election Winner” contracts have become high-profile lightning rods for debate.

Kalshi’s regulatory battles escalated in August 2023 when the CFTC proposed new rules restricting political contracts. That threatened a market segment worth over $500 million annually across all platforms. The company’s petition for review before the D.C. Circuit Court remains pending as of May 2026.

Institutional participation has grown to 22% of volume as of Q2 2026. That $6 billion in total contracts traded since 2021 signals the scale of what’s at stake.

$6B — Total contracts traded on Kalshi since 2021, according to News.

Educate your inbox

Americans for Fair Markets plans to distribute a monthly policy briefing, summarizing key regulatory developments and offering technical primers on event contract design.

More than 700 policymakers and staff currently appear on the distribution list, including members of relevant House and Senate committees and all state-level financial regulators.

• Monthly briefing:Targets 700+ U.S. regulators and lawmakers.
• Download goal:5,000+ unique monthly users by December 2026.
• First explainer:Focused on distinguishing regulated markets from gambling products.

Related

Americans for Fair Markets is mobilizing just as a key congressional committee expands its investigation into prediction markets. The probe follows allegations of improper information flows in U.S. election contracts. Kalshi isn’t alone in facing regulatory pressure — Polymarket and PredictIt will also testify in June 2026 hearings about market integrity and compliance measures.

Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory roles in both Polymarket and Kalshi are raising questions about the Trump family's investment in lucrative online prediction markets. https://t.co/dL1N5pyyfB

— Democracy Now! (@democracynow) April 23, 2026

users participate in event contract markets monthly, wagering considerable sums on politics, economics, and sports. The gaming industry has spent more than $4 million over the past 18 months lobbying for stricter CFTC limits on event-based products.

The lobbying confrontation has drawn in technology advocacy groups, public interest nonprofits, and financial innovation labs. All are vying for influence over lawmakers set to draft industry-defining legislation in the second half of 2026. Kalshi’s new group intends to host three in-person policy roundtables in Washington by September, featuring data from independent researchers and former regulators. By aligning with bipartisan advisors, Americans for Fair Markets seeks to blunt attempts to restrict market access for retail investors, especially as interest in election-based contracts surges ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle.

• Committee hearings:June 2026 will feature testimony from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt executives.
• Active U.S. participants:Over 400,000 per month reported by industry trackers.
• Political bets:Hefty monthly volumes wagered each month on regulated event markets.
• Lobbying by opposition:$4 million+ spent by gaming industry groups over last 18 months.

Go Deeper

Event contract markets trace their legal roots to the Commodity Exchange Act. The line separating regulated forecasting from unlawful gambling has never been fully settled in U.S. law. The CFTC first granted a “no-action” letter for political event contracts in 2014, spurring initial market growth, but regulatory uncertainty re-emerged with the popularity of blockchain-based platforms.

In response, Kalshi and Americans for Fair Markets have assembled legal research tracing the economic utility of prediction markets for hedging public policy risk. They’ve referenced more than 45 academic studies and white papers in their briefs, per news.kalshi.com.

Over $2 billion in global volume is expected to flow through event-driven derivatives by year end, up 30% from 2025.

• Historical context:CFTC first recognized event contracts in 2014 via no-action letter.
• International trend:U.K. and Ireland regulate political betting as a subset of financial services.
• Global event derivatives volume:$2 billion+ expected for 2026, up 30% year-on-year.
• Comparative research:45+ legal white papers cited in advocacy briefs to Congress.

Support our journalism

Americans for Fair Markets will partially fund open access to regulatory filings, academic briefings, and an archive of historical market data. The goal is helping journalists, researchers, and the public scrutinize U.S. prediction market legislation. At least 18 major news outlets and six independent think tanks have scheduled interviews with Mulvaney and other industry advisors in June and July 2026.

Public donors and institutional partners are being invited to contribute to an endowment aimed at supporting research and bipartisan briefings. Partnerships with independent policy outlets, such as the Center for Financial Innovation and Responsible Risk, are expected to expand coverage and analysis around event derivatives and digital markets regulation.

Dedicated contact portals and engagement forums will be available on the Americans for Fair Markets website throughout 2026.

• Open data:Regulatory archives and advocacy content to remain open-access.
• Media interviews:18+ outlets scheduled for June-July 2026 coverage.
• Transparency pledge:Quarterly updates on user and compliance metrics to be published via Kalshi.