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June 8, 2026
Bitcoin BTC
$63,119.99 ▲ +1.91%
Bitcoin

Bitcoin

BTC Rank #1

Preço ao vivo · painel multi-fonte · Atualizado há 18 minutes

$63,119.99
▲ +1.91% (24h)
Cap. mercado
$1.26T
Volume 24h
$1.52B
Oferta circ.
20.04M
BTC
Oferta máx.
21.00M
BTC
Máxima histórica
$124,658.54
Oct 2025
Mínima histórica
$60,884.62
01On-chain

Próximo halving

A recompensa por bloco é reduzida pela metade a cada ~4 anos

Data estimada
Mar 15, 2028
Dias restantes
645
Nova recompensa
1.5625 BTC
Último halving: Apr 19, 2024 54.7% do ciclo concluído

Cada halving corta pela metade a recompensa por bloco que os mineradores recebem. Bitcoin's issuance rate is hard-coded — this event is mathematically predictable, not subject to governance. Historicamente, halvings precederam expansões de preço de vários meses, embora o desempenho passado não garanta retornos futuros.

Contexto do ciclo

Como o halving moldou ciclos históricos e atuais

O ciclo de quatro anos do Bitcoin está ancorado no halving: a cada 210.000 blocos (aproximadamente quatro anos), a recompensa por bloco — e portanto o ritmo no qual novos BTC entram em circulação — é cortada pela metade. O cronograma está codificado no protocolo e não pode ser alterado sem um consenso social esmagador, o que torna o halving o único evento de oferta com previsibilidade crível em qualquer classe de ativos importante.

O último halving foi em 19 de abril de 2024, no bloco 840.000, reduzindo a recompensa de 6,25 BTC para 3,125 BTC. O próximo está projetado para por volta de abril de 2028 no bloco 1.050.000, reduzindo a recompensa para 1,5625 BTC. Cada halving corta a emissão diária aproximadamente pela metade enquanto a demanda estrutural (fluxos de ETF, alocações de tesouraria, compras de varejo) mantém-se estável ou cresce — produzindo a assimetria oferta-demanda que historicamente marcou o início de cada ciclo de alta multi-trimestral.

Retornos históricos pós-halving: o ciclo de 2012 entregou aproximadamente 96× do dia do halving até o pico (pico ~1.150 USD em novembro de 2013); o ciclo de 2016 entregou aproximadamente 30× (pico ~19.800 USD em dezembro de 2017); o ciclo de 2020 entregou aproximadamente 7,9× (pico ~69.000 USD em novembro de 2021). A tendência é clara: retornos decrescentes à medida que o mercado amadurece, mas um padrão direcional consistente de expansão multi-trimestral durando aproximadamente 12–18 meses após cada halving.

O ciclo atual — halving de 2024 — tem a mudança estrutural adicional de que os ETFs de Bitcoin à vista foram aprovados em janeiro de 2024, três meses antes do halving. Os ETFs absorvem aproximadamente 2.000–4.000 BTC por dia em compras líquidas durante fases de acumulação, comparável em magnitude à nova emissão diária com a recompensa atual de 3,125 BTC. É um sumidouro permanente de demanda que não existia em nenhum ciclo anterior e é a razão estrutural principal pela qual o caso base deste ciclo parece diferente.

Network activity

Live on-chain metrics · multiple data sources

Hash rate
759,825.9 EH/s
Total computing power securing the network
via mempool.space
Block height
952,744
Total blocks mined to date
via mempool.space
Difficulty
139.0T
Auto-adjusts every 2,016 blocks
via mempool.space
Avg. fee
2 sat/vB
Median fee for ~30-min confirmation
via mempool.space
Difficulty cycle
21.6%
1,580 blocks remaining
via mempool.space

Hashrate trend (90 days)

Network computing power · mempool.space

Current
830.2 EH/s
30d change
-15.9%
90d change
-11.8%
vs 90d high
-27.2%
1,140 EH/s 753 EH/s 03-08 04-07 05-08 06-07
Recent difficulty adjustments
May 29
+1.02%
May 15
+1.03%
May 2
+0.98%
Apr 17
+0.98%
Apr 3
+1.04%
Mar 20
+0.92%

Bitcoin's hashrate represents the total computing power dedicated to mining at any given moment. Higher hashrate means the network is more expensive to attack and reflects ongoing investment by miners — a quasi-fundamental signal that, over multi-quarter windows, tends to correlate with miner confidence in future BTC price.

The 90-day trend shows hashrate has declined by 11.8%, while the 30-day move of -15.9% shows the more recent direction. Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (about two weeks) to keep block time near the 10-minute target — the table above shows the most recent adjustments, each one resetting the cost basis of mining for the next epoch.

02Resumo

Pulso do mercado

Snapshot editorial ao vivo — os números atualizam a cada refresh

Estado atual: Bitcoin is trading at $63,119.99 with a $1,264.6 billion market capitalization (rank #1). The price moved +3.67% over the past 24 hours and is -14.33% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -21.29% and the 90-day at -7.76%.

Posição no ciclo: A drawdown of this magnitude is within the typical correction range — historically resolved in either direction, often via a re-test of the prior peak before a definitive break.

Volatilidade e estrutura: 30-day realized volatility of 37.9% annualized is moderate for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Bearish (31/100), against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop with cumulative pressure across 30/90-day windows.

Painéis compostos

Derived metrics composed from multi-horizon data

Força do preço
30/100
Bearish

Composite of 24h/7d/30d/90d/1y returns weighted toward longer horizons.

Liquidez
30/100
Thin

24h volume / market cap = 0.105%.

Volatilidade (30d)
38%
Moderate

Annualized std-dev of daily log returns.

Desde a máxima
-50.0%
50%

% of all-time high currently held.

Desde a mínima
2.5×
2.5x

Multiple over all-time low. Log scale.

Bitcoin's performance grid shows the asset gained 2.33% over the last 24 hours, with the 7-day picture 15.43% lower and the 30-day frame 22.31% lower. Over the trailing 365 days, the asset has delivered losses of 40.97%, against a weakening multi-horizon backdrop.

The asset currently trades 50.0% below its all-time high, deep in the post-peak drawdown regime where statistical mean-reversion historically matters less than narrative and liquidity flow. 30-day realized volatility sits at 38% annualized — moderate territory for a crypto asset of this size.

Bitcoin currently shows thin turnover that warrants caution on larger orders. 24-hour trading volume represents 0.105% of market capitalization — our liquidity-health composite scores this as Thin (30/100). This is on the lighter end of the top-100 range; large orders should be sliced into the market rather than executed at once.

As Bitcoin itself, this asset is the reference against which other coins' BTC correlation is measured. Bitcoin's own dominant correlations are with the broad risk-asset complex (S&P 500, Nasdaq) during liquidity contractions, and with gold and the dollar index during regime changes in macro sentiment.

Grade de desempenho

% return across 9 horizons — heatmap by magnitude

1H
-0.03%
24H
+2.33%
7D
-15.43%
30D
-22.31%
3M
-8.95%
6M
-32.77%
1Y
-40.97%
ATH
-50.02%
from ATH
ATL
2.5×
from ATL
03Preço

Gráfico de preço

USD · daily candles · CoinGecko + Binance

Loading chart…

Data refreshed 18 minutes ago · auto-updates daily

Histórico de preços

Last 30 trading days · daily OHLC

Date Open High Low Close Change
2026-06-07 $60,884.62 $62,960.00 $60,746.00 $62,304.86 +2.33%
2026-06-06 $61,056.47 $61,530.05 $59,500.00 $60,884.62 -0.28%
2026-06-05 $63,885.99 $63,978.00 $59,130.91 $61,056.47 -4.43%
2026-06-04 $64,142.75 $64,764.32 $61,383.56 $63,885.99 -0.40%
2026-06-03 $66,760.84 $67,516.00 $64,092.49 $64,142.75 -3.92%
2026-06-02 $71,408.90 $71,408.90 $66,193.00 $66,760.83 -6.51%
2026-06-01 $73,674.39 $74,092.00 $70,686.68 $71,408.90 -3.08%
2026-05-31 $73,884.38 $74,275.66 $73,400.00 $73,674.39 -0.28%
2026-05-30 $73,460.78 $74,143.76 $73,216.00 $73,884.38 +0.58%
2026-05-29 $73,617.52 $74,514.10 $72,512.49 $73,460.78 -0.21%
2026-05-28 $74,449.31 $74,590.77 $72,582.82 $73,617.51 -1.12%
2026-05-27 $75,930.01 $76,174.15 $74,243.99 $74,449.30 -1.95%
2026-05-26 $77,322.01 $78,080.00 $75,677.97 $75,930.01 -1.80%
2026-05-25 $77,064.96 $77,905.52 $76,914.25 $77,322.01 +0.33%
2026-05-24 $76,752.00 $77,543.15 $76,108.00 $77,064.96 +0.41%
2026-05-23 $75,539.50 $77,404.18 $74,289.60 $76,752.01 +1.61%
2026-05-22 $77,615.52 $77,900.00 $75,359.18 $75,539.50 -2.67%
2026-05-21 $77,552.24 $78,200.00 $76,719.47 $77,615.52 +0.08%
2026-05-20 $76,834.36 $77,853.04 $76,516.74 $77,552.23 +0.93%
2026-05-19 $77,001.88 $77,414.62 $76,144.71 $76,834.36 -0.22%
2026-05-18 $77,457.67 $77,800.00 $76,051.00 $77,001.87 -0.59%
2026-05-17 $78,148.05 $78,599.99 $76,735.16 $77,457.67 -0.88%
2026-05-16 $79,113.20 $79,227.77 $77,640.00 $78,148.05 -1.22%
2026-05-15 $81,090.00 $81,664.45 $78,659.00 $79,113.21 -2.44%
2026-05-14 $79,313.61 $82,048.13 $78,922.00 $81,089.99 +2.24%
2026-05-13 $80,504.47 $81,324.64 $78,754.65 $79,313.61 -1.48%
2026-05-12 $81,745.66 $81,788.00 $79,843.59 $80,504.47 -1.52%
2026-05-11 $82,210.07 $82,380.00 $80,462.97 $81,745.65 -0.56%
2026-05-10 $80,678.41 $82,479.32 $80,279.77 $82,210.07 +1.90%
2026-05-09 $80,193.18 $81,080.00 $80,129.85 $80,678.40 +0.61%

Análise técnica

RSI · MACD · moving averages · Bollinger

RSI (14)
22.3
oversold
03070100
Sinal MACD
Bearish
Histogram: -1,373.02
Médias móveis
MA 50
$75,825.57
-17.83%
MA 100
$73,029.04
-14.68%
MA 200
$78,506.28
-20.64%
Níveis de resistência
  • R$68,698.70
  • R$69,310.00
  • R$69,988.83
  • R$70,983.00
Níveis de suporte
  • S$60,000.00

Previsão multi-modelo de preço

3-model ensemble · TA + statistical + peer-relative

Short term · 24h–7d
Medium conf
24–48 hours
Low $53,996.66 -14.5%
Mid $58,714.86 -7.0%
High $64,456.80 +2.1%
Modelos contribuintes
Technical · Statistical · Relative
Mid term · 7–30d
Medium conf
7–30 days
Low $49,063.92 -22.3%
Mid $55,159.05 -12.6%
High $63,787.10 +1.1%
Modelos contribuintes
Technical · Statistical · Relative
Long term · 3–6mo
Medium conf
3–12 months
Low $29,518.46 -53.2%
Mid $43,652.69 -30.8%
High $68,040.06 +7.8%
Modelos contribuintes
Technical · Statistical · Relative
Desdobramento por modelo +
Model Horizon Low Mid High Method
Technical Short $55,950.30 $60,412.35 $64,874.41 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Technical Mid $54,935.37 $56,738.22 $63,089.92 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Technical Long $29,646.55 $42,352.22 $55,057.88 TA composite (ATR + Bollinger + slope)
Monte Carlo Short $55,274.48 $61,795.07 $69,084.87 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Monte Carlo Mid $47,749.86 $60,149.22 $75,768.36 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Monte Carlo Long $28,654.30 $50,439.46 $88,787.34 Monte Carlo on 90d log returns
Peer comparison Short $50,339.26 $52,910.42 $57,868.44 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category
Peer comparison Mid $44,944.54 $46,926.31 $48,509.27 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category
Peer comparison Long $30,542.59 $35,904.14 $53,359.21 Peer comparison · 3 peers in same category

The forecast above combines three independent models per the STNews methodology:

  • Technical model projects ranges from moving-average, ATR, Bollinger band and trend-slope inputs — useful when the asset is in a clean trending or ranging regime.
  • Statistical (Monte Carlo) model uses the 90-day distribution of daily log returns to project the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile prices at each horizon — useful as an unbiased baseline that does not assume any trend continuation.
  • Peer-relative model compares against same-category coins of similar market cap, projecting where this asset would trade if it matched the median, lower-quartile and upper-quartile peer return profiles — useful as a sanity check that anchors to broader sector behavior.

The ensemble forecast shown is a weighted average (40% statistical · 30% technical · 30% peer-relative). The confidence badge reflects how closely the three models agree: tighter agreement → higher confidence; wider disagreement → lower confidence, indicating that the asset is in a regime where statistical models alone are unreliable.

Disclaimer: These forecasts are algorithmic estimates derived from public price data using moving averages, Bollinger bands, Monte Carlo simulation of historical log returns, and peer-group comparison. They are not investment advice and should not be used to make trading decisions. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and can lose all value. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. See our forecast methodology for full details.
04On-chain

Correlações entre ativos (90d)

Pearson correlation of daily log returns vs top L1 references

Bitcoin
self-ref
Ethereum
+0.90
Strong
-10+1
Solana
+0.87
Strong
-10+1

Beyond Bitcoin, BTC's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

  • Ethereum reference: +0.90 — a very strong positive relationship.
  • Solana reference: +0.87 — a very strong positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

05Contexto

Sobre Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is uma criptomoeda de Camada-1, operando em sua própria rede blockchain independente. It trades at $63,119.99 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 1.91%, placing it at rank #1 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Bitcoin's current market cap stands at $1.26T, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

Nesta página você encontrará um painel ao vivo, atualizado diariamente, que rastreia Bitcoin através de múltiplas fontes de dados — histórico de preços de vários anos, atividade on-chain quando disponível, fundamentos como oferta circulante e diluição, principais corretoras por volume, análise técnica com médias móveis e RSI, e uma previsão algorítmica de curto, médio e longo prazo. Todos os números vêm de APIs públicas e ficam em cache local; nada aqui é aconselhamento de investimento.

Bitcoin (BTC) is the original cryptocurrency: a decentralized, peer-to-peer digital monetary network proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto in October 2008 and launched in January 2009. With a hard-capped supply of 21 million coins and a predictable issuance schedule that halves every four years, it was designed as digital sound money — credibly scarce, censorship-resistant, and verifiable without trusting any third party.

Bitcoin's value proposition is deliberately narrow. It does not aim to be programmable money, the substrate for an application platform, or a high-throughput payments rail. It aims to be the most resilient, most credibly neutral, and most predictably scarce monetary asset in human history — and the metric that matters most is its survival and security over decades, not its block time or transaction throughput in a given quarter.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,120 with a market capitalization of $1,265 billion, representing roughly 50% of all cryptocurrency value. It is widely accepted as a store-of-value reserve asset by individuals, corporate treasuries, sovereign entities, and — since the January 2024 spot-ETF approvals — large-scale institutional allocators.

STNews Analyst Note

By market value Bitcoin (BTC) sits inside the top ten, trading at $63,119.99 as of the latest snapshot. BTC is +1.91% over 24 hours, -4.60% over the past week, -3.74% over 30 days, putting it among the weekly underperformers across the top 250 by market capitalisation. Bitcoin trades 49% off its all-time high of $124,658.54, a level reached 8 months ago. Roughly 95% of BTC's total supply is liquid today (20.04M of 21.00M), with the balance scheduled for gradual release over time.

Trading volume is light versus market value — only about 0.1% of capitalisation changes hands daily — so larger orders can move price more than they would for higher-liquidity peers. On a one-year view BTC has lost 32.0%, against a broader crypto-market backdrop that closed the period roughly flat after several volatile quarters.

Como funciona — Bitcoin

O Bitcoin é protegido pela mineração proof-of-work: os mineradores competem para resolver um quebra-cabeça criptográfico, e quem o resolve primeiro publica o próximo bloco de transações e ganha a recompensa do bloco. A rede ajusta a dificuldade do quebra-cabeça a cada 2.016 blocos (aproximadamente duas semanas) para que um novo bloco seja produzido a cada 10 minutos, independentemente de quanto poder de computação esteja online. O Bitcoin não tem smart contracts, staking, conjunto de validadores ou governança on-chain — é intencionalmente uma rede monetária de propósito único.

A oferta está limitada a 21 milhões de BTC, e a recompensa por bloco é dividida pela metade a cada 210.000 blocos (aproximadamente quatro anos). O último halving reduziu a recompensa para 3,125 BTC em abril de 2024; o próximo está projetado para por volta de abril de 2028 a 1,5625 BTC. Cada halving comprime o cronograma de nova oferta e historicamente marca o ponto de inflexão estrutural de um ciclo de quatro anos.

O throughput na camada base é intencionalmente limitado — cerca de 7 transações por segundo em média. Os casos de uso de maior volume operam em segundas camadas, principalmente a Lightning Network, que usa canais de pagamento protegidos pelo Bitcoin para liquidar transações de alta frequência e baixa taxa.

Casos de uso — Bitcoin

Os principais casos de uso do Bitcoin refletem seu design de rede monetária:

  • Reserva de valor. O caso de uso dominante. Indivíduos, corporações (notavelmente Strategy, antiga MicroStrategy, com ~250.000 BTC) e soberanos mantêm BTC como alternativa digital ao ouro — credivelmente escasso, transportável através de fronteiras sem permissão e fora da política monetária de qualquer jurisdição.
  • Camada de liquidação. O Bitcoin é cada vez mais usado como camada de liquidação para transações de alto valor e baixa frequência onde finalidade e liquidação sem contraparte importam mais que velocidade.
  • Pagamentos via Lightning. A Lightning Network permite pagamentos quase instantâneos com taxas abaixo de um centavo, com adoção crescente em regiões com instabilidade monetária e como trilho de remessa.
  • Colateral. O BTC é a forma de colateral cripto mais amplamente aceita em plataformas centralizadas e descentralizadas de empréstimo.
  • Ativo de reserva para ETFs. Os ETFs de Bitcoin à vista (IBIT, FBTC, BITB e outros) detêm coletivamente mais de um milhão de BTC, tornando o ativo acessível via contas de corretagem tradicionais.

Para o que o Bitcoin não é usado: smart contracts, aplicações descentralizadas, NFTs (Ordinals são uma camada de nicho), ou staking gerador de rendimento. Qualquer coisa que exija programabilidade roda em outra rede.

Tokenomics

Supply schedule & distribution

Circulating vs locked vs unminted
  • Circulating supply: 20.04M BTC — tokens actively trading and held by the public
  • Total supply: 20.04M BTC — all tokens minted to date (including those locked or held by the issuer)
  • Max supply: 21.00M BTC — the protocol-defined upper limit (if any) on lifetime issuance
  • Issued to date: 95.4% of max supply

Bitcoin's supply schedule directly affects its long-term inflation rate and, by extension, how dilutive future issuance will be to existing holders. A coin near full dilution behaves very differently from one that still has 60% of its supply waiting to be unlocked.

Supply economics

Issuance pressure, dilution, and structural value accrual

Bitcoin's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. At 95.4% of maximum supply already issued, the remaining issuance is a relatively small fraction of total potential supply. Sell pressure from future issuance is therefore limited.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

Nota do trader

Interpretação tática conforme tipo de moeda

For Bitcoin, the tactical framework that has historically mattered most is the four-year cycle anchored to the halving. The current cycle's position determines whether the strategic posture is accumulation (early-cycle, post-halving) or distribution-aware (late-cycle, parabolic). Network-health metrics — hashrate, difficulty trajectory, mempool fees — provide the same kind of signal for BTC that earnings provide for equities: the underlying business of mining is either growing or contracting, and the price tends to follow over multi-quarter windows.

The Price Strength composite at 31/100 reads as bearish. Combined with the 49%% from all-time high, this is the kind of setup that has historically rewarded patience: careful entries near support outperform chasing rebounds. Position sizing should reflect that PoW-chain volatility tends to amplify both directions, with single-week moves of 15%+ entirely normal.

Developer activity

On-chain projects live or die by code shipped · via GitHub

Stars
89,276
38,984 forks
30d commits
100
18 active authors
Open issues
678
primarily C++
Last release
v31.0
2026-04-20
Developer Activity Index
85/100
Very active
Stars
87/100
Commits
90/100
Contributors
85/100
Releases
75/100
30-day commits
2026-05-10 Total: 100 commits 2026-06-08
Recent releases
  • v31.0 · Bitcoin Core 31.0 2026-04-20
  • v28.4 · Bitcoin Core 28.4 2026-04-06
  • v29.3 · Bitcoin Core 29.3 2026-02-11
  • v30.2 · Bitcoin Core 30.2 2026-01-13
  • v30.1 · Bitcoin Core 30.1 2026-01-02

Bitcoin's public repository (bitcoin/bitcoin) shows 89,276 stars, 100 commits over the trailing 30 days from 18 active contributors, and the most recent release on 2026-04-20. Combined into our composite Developer Activity Index, the project reads as very active (85/100) — useful as a quasi-fundamental signal alongside on-chain metrics and market pricing.

06Ação

Markets & exchanges

Top trading pairs by 24h volume

# Exchange Pair Last price 24h volume Trust
1 Binance BTC/USDT $63,119.99 $1.52B A+
2 Coinbase BTC/USD $63,126.30 $334.06M A+
3 OKX BTC/USDT $63,113.68 $212.59M A
4 Bybit BTC/USDT $63,132.61 $167.03M A
5 Kraken BTC/USD $63,107.37 $121.48M A

Initial rows server-rendered from our verified pipeline (binance-v2). Data-only. STNews does not place affiliate links here. See our affiliate disclosure.

If you'd bought Bitcoin...

ROI calculator · historical close prices

BTC Bought
at
Value today
at $63,119.99
Total return

Calculated on daily close prices. Does not include trading fees, taxes, or staking yields. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Converter

Rate: 1 BTC = $63,119.99

Compared to peers

Price, market cap, volume, supply

Coin7d trendPriceMarket Cap24h Vol24h %7d %
Bitcoin BTC $63,119.99 $1.26T $1.52B +1.91% -4.60%
Ethereum ETH $1,679.87 $202.74B $761.13M +4.32% -5.79%
Dogecoin DOGE $0.0864 $12.81B $61.60M +3.34% -6.29%
Litecoin LTC $43.08 $3.33B $17.36M +3.11% -8.92%
Monero XMR $118.70 $2.19B $574.68K +4.77% -6.72%
Solana SOL $66.48 $39.14B $181.07M +3.83% -13.42%
BNB BNB $600.38 $83.56B $84.72M +2.05% -3.52%
Cardano ADA $0.1665 $7.49B $34.90M +2.91% -11.45%
07Perspectiva

Market sentiment

Crypto Fear & Greed Index · alternative.me

12
Extreme Fear
2026-06-07

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index aggregates volatility, market momentum, social media activity, dominance and Google Trends data into a single 0–100 score updated daily. Today's reading is 12 — Extreme Fear.

Extreme fear (below 25) historically signals buying opportunities for contrarians, while extreme greed (above 75) often precedes corrections. The index works best as one input among many, not as a standalone trading signal.

Past 30 days

Macro & cross-asset context

How macro liquidity and cross-asset moves frame the trade

The macro backdrop for crypto assets in 2026 is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto assets — and Bitcoin in particular — have historically responded most strongly to changes in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse.

The cross-asset relationships worth monitoring: the dollar index (DXY) — historically inversely correlated with crypto over longer windows; the 10-year Treasury yield — a proxy for the cost of risk capital; gold — which often shares "monetary hedge" framing with Bitcoin during certain regime changes; and the S&P 500 — which during liquidity-driven moves often rhymes with crypto despite the popular framing of crypto as uncorrelated.

For Bitcoin specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, BTC tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses.

Riscos

Riscos específicos do Bitcoin como rede monetária proof-of-work:

  • Concentração de mineração. Os três maiores pools de mineração controlam coletivamente mais de 50% do hashrate global. Embora nenhum pool tenha agido maliciosamente historicamente, esta concentração é um risco estrutural.
  • Exposição energética e regulatória. A pegada elétrica da mineração de Bitcoin atrai atenção política sustentada. Proibições específicas por jurisdição (China 2021) causaram quedas de hashrate de curto prazo, mas não danificaram a rede a longo prazo.
  • Computação quântica (long-tail). Um computador quântico suficientemente avançado poderia teoricamente quebrar assinaturas de curva elíptica. Este é um cronograma de várias décadas e a comunidade tem pesquisado ativamente atualizações pós-quânticas.
  • Correlação macro. Apesar de sua narrativa de "ativo não correlacionado", o BTC historicamente se correlacionou com ativos de risco (Nasdaq) durante contrações de liquidez. Os benefícios de diversificação são reais mas não absolutos.
  • Custódia. A autocustódia requer diligência operacional; a perda de chaves privadas é permanente. As soluções custodiais reintroduzem o risco de contraparte.
  • Volatilidade. O Bitcoin historicamente entregou 60–80% de volatilidade realizada anualizada — múltiplos mais alta que ações. O dimensionamento de posição deve refletir isso.
08Mais

Frequently asked questions

Who created Bitcoin?

Bitcoin was created by an anonymous developer or group of developers using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The whitepaper was published in October 2008 and the first block was mined on January 3, 2009. Satoshi's real identity has never been verified.

What is the maximum supply of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has a hard-coded maximum supply of 21 million coins. The remaining supply will be released gradually through the mining reward, which halves approximately every four years. The final Bitcoin is projected to be mined around the year 2140.

How is Bitcoin different from other cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency and remains the largest by market capitalization. It is primarily designed as a store of value and a censorship-resistant payment network, not a platform for smart contracts or decentralized applications. Other major networks like Ethereum focus on programmability; Bitcoin focuses on simplicity, security and predictable monetary policy.

Latest STNews coverage of Bitcoin

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In the news

Headlines from major crypto outlets · refreshed every 6h

CoinDesk 2 hours ago

Bitcoin holds steady after Sunday's rally, though full-fledged reversal may take longer

Bitcoin is holding above $63,000 after rallying on Sunday. The price is now hovering near a key 200-week moving average that often marks major cycle turning points.

CoinDesk 3 hours ago

Gold slips below 200-day moving average offering glimmer of hope for bitcoin bulls

Gold falls into bear market territory, while a stronger U.S. dollar and rising rate expectations pressure risk assets.

CoinDesk 4 hours ago

CME is letting traders bet on bitcoin volatility, not price, and two firms have already placed bets

Monarq and DV Chain kick off trading in CME's bitcoin volatility index futures.

cryptoslate 6 hours ago

Morgan Stanley’s Galaxy deal points to Bitcoin’s next institutional test: lending collateral

Morgan Stanley announced on June 5 that eligible wealth management clients can now lend Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana to Galaxy Digital and receive shares of spot crypto exchange-traded products in return. Galaxy will coordinate an in-kind creation with an authorized participant, then deliver ETP shares directly into the client's chosen account. Onboarding timelines that previously […] The po…

newsbtc 7 hours ago

Bitcoin Trader Says Something Extremely Bad Is Coming Today, Here’s What

Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price suffered a major crash, moving below $60,000 for the first time in this cycle. In contrast, there has been some recovery, with the price moving above $62,000 on Sunday, as investors moved back into the market. However, this recovery seems to only be a stop-gap for now because, according to one analyst, there is something bad coming Bitcoin’s way and it’s goi…

CoinDesk 7 hours ago

Bitcoin's rally to $63,700 triggers $504 million losses for short sellers, most since late April

Traders betting against bitcoin lost $504 million over 24 hours as it bounced from below $60,000, though a fresh Iran-Israel flare-up pulled prices back on Monday.

Disclaimer & data sources

The information on this page is provided for general educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; you can lose some or all of your capital. STNews does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Data sources: CoinGecko · CoinPaprika · Binance · DefiLlama · alternative.me Fear & Greed Index · Editorial standards: /editorial-guidelines · Affiliate disclosure: /affiliate-disclosure

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