Avalanche

Текущее состояние: Avalanche is trading at $6.72 with a $3.1 billion market capitalization (rank #35). The price moved +0.81% over the past 24 hours and is -25.21% over 7 days; the 30-day move stands at -32.21% and the 90-day at -27.45%. Both long-term and short-term horizons are pointing the same direction down — historically the regime where forced selling and capitulation are most likely to be in their later stages.

Позиция в цикле: The asset trades deep in the post-peak drawdown regime, more than 70% below its prior cycle high — typical of late-stage bear conditions or assets that have permanently re-rated lower.

Волатильность и структура: 30-day realized volatility of 62.4% annualized is high for an asset this size. Our composite multi-horizon Price Strength reads Weak (19/100), in a structurally weak regime with material losses across every meaningful horizon.

Beyond Bitcoin, AVAX's 90-day return correlations to the other two largest layer-1 references help characterize whether the asset moves as part of a crypto-market beta complex or as something more idiosyncratic. The Pearson correlations across daily log returns:

• Bitcoin reference: +0.83 — a very strong positive relationship.
• Ethereum reference: +0.89 — a very strong positive relationship.
• Solana reference: +0.90 — a very strong positive relationship.

Strong correlation to multiple references typically indicates that the asset trades primarily as crypto-market beta — moves in BTC/ETH/SOL drive most of the price action, and stand-alone alpha is harder to capture. Weak or negative correlations indicate idiosyncratic drivers (project-specific news, sector rotation within crypto, or narrative shifts) that can produce returns uncorrelated with the broader market.

Avalanche (AVAX) is криптовалюта, торгуемая на мировых рынках цифровых активов. It trades at $6.72 as of the latest update, with a 24-hour move up 0.77%, placing it at rank #11 by market capitalisation among all listed digital assets. Avalanche's current market cap stands at $3.08B, a figure used by traders, analysts and institutional desks to gauge relative liquidity and risk exposure across the crypto market.

На этой странице вы найдёте живую панель, обновляемую ежедневно, которая отслеживает Avalanche по нескольким источникам данных — история цен за несколько лет, on-chain активность при наличии, фундаментальные показатели (циркулирующее предложение и разводнение), топ-биржи по объёму, технический анализ со скользящими средними и RSI, а также алгоритмический краткосрочный, среднесрочный и долгосрочный прогноз. Все цифры взяты из публичных API и кэшируются локально; ничто здесь не является инвестиционной рекомендацией.

Avalanche is a smart-contract platform competing for developer attention and application activity. Its value depends on user adoption, developer ecosystem, and the unique trade-offs its consensus mechanism offers (typically a combination of throughput, decentralization, and finality).

Avalanche это Layer-1 proof-of-stake блокчейн: валидаторы стейкают нативный токен в качестве залога, предлагают и подтверждают блоки и получают награды за стейкинг за честное участие. Злонамеренные или халатные валидаторы слешатся. Нативный токен служит газом для вычислений, залогом стейкинга и инструментом управления.

Primary use cases: hosting decentralized applications, native staking for yield, securing the network via validator participation, paying gas for transactions, and serving as base-layer collateral for DeFi protocols built on the chain.

Avalanche's tokenomics combine its supply schedule, current circulating supply, and the relationship between circulating market cap and fully-diluted valuation. Approximately 63.6% of maximum supply is currently circulating, meaning roughly 36.4% of total potential supply remains to be issued. This implies a structural emission stream against current demand for the asset. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4.9 billion stands at 1.6× the current circulating market cap of $3.1 billion. The wider this ratio, the more issuance overhang the asset faces — a structural headwind on valuation that mature assets like Bitcoin do not face but that early-cycle assets typically do.

For thesis-building, the relevant question is whether the structural value accrual mechanism (fee burns, staking yield reinvestment, deflationary supply mechanics, ecosystem TVL growth) outpaces the structural emission pressure. When it does, the price tends to grind higher over multi-quarter windows even without speculative momentum; when it does not, the asset typically requires consistent narrative-driven demand to absorb the issuance.

The macro backdrop for crypto assets in 2026 is dominated by the Federal Reserve's rate path, the trajectory of dollar liquidity, and the unwind (or non-unwind) of the post-2020 expansion in M2 money supply. Crypto assets — and Bitcoin in particular — have historically responded most strongly to changes in the global liquidity regime, with risk-on phases coinciding with falling real yields and a softening dollar, and risk-off phases the inverse. Given the 90-day BTC correlation of +0.83, AVAX's near-term macro sensitivity will be similar to Bitcoin's — driven primarily by the same liquidity conditions and risk-asset flows.

The cross-asset relationships worth monitoring: the dollar index (DXY) — historically inversely correlated with crypto over longer windows; the 10-year Treasury yield — a proxy for the cost of risk capital; gold — which often shares "monetary hedge" framing with Bitcoin during certain regime changes; and the S&P 500 — which during liquidity-driven moves often rhymes with crypto despite the popular framing of crypto as uncorrelated.

For Avalanche specifically, the macro variable that has empirically led price most often is global crypto-market liquidity — proxied by stablecoin total supply, futures open interest, and exchange volumes. When these expand, AVAX tends to follow; when they contract, the relationship typically reverses.

Specific risks: validator centralization, smart contract risk in the application layer, competitive pressure from rival L1s, regulatory uncertainty around staking rewards, MEV concerns, and reliance on continued developer and user adoption to maintain network value.