NVT Hints Overvaluation, TVL Falls: What’s Next for Solana Price?

5 Min Read

Highlights

  • In Q1 2025, SOL’s performance has been underwhelming, with a 36% drop over the last 30 days.
  • The NVT Ratio suggests potential overvaluation, raising concerns about price corrections.
  • Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is at $6.72 Billion, down from a peak of $14.24 Billion in January.

The Solana price has faced challenges in maintaining its recovery momentum, with its price struggling to surpass the $150 mark despite several attempts in March 2025.

Many had hoped that the FOMC rate cut would infuse some bullish spark, but FOMC said there was no change in rates.

As a result, no bullishness was witnessed. This price action indicates a lack of sustained bullish sentiment, making it difficult for further gains to materialize.

In ongoing Q1 2025, the Solana price performance has been notably underwhelming, leaving investors dissatisfied.

Despite several positive developments seen in Q1 2025, nothing worked strongly in favor of the crypto markets. For instance, news about a crypto reserve, but nothing happened.

This all had a root cause and that was the macroeconomic shifts. That injected a sense of pessimism, causing many investors to remain on the sidelines.

Currently, SOL price has been consolidating for the past 10 days, struggling to hold above $130. This reflects the broader uncertainty in the market.

SOL/USD 1.D. | Source: TradingView
SOL/USD 1.D. | Source: TradingView

Over the last 30 days, the Solana crypto has experienced a significant drop of nearly 36%, underscoring persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the on-chain metrics are also giving pessimistic signals

Such as, the NVT metric suggests that Solana’s price may be overvalued and its Total Value Locked (TVL) fluctuating below $7 Billion.

This showed a heavy blow to its fundamentals. Keep reading to know more on which side the Solana price will head here on.

NVT Hints Overvaluation in Solana Price

The NVT Ratio, an important metric that assesses Solana crypto’s valuation in relation to its transaction activity, has reached a four-month high.

This indicates that while the network’s value is on the rise, transaction activity has not kept up with this growth.

Source: Glassnode
Source: Glassnode

In the past, such dissimilarities have pointed to potential overvaluation, often leading to price corrections.

This metric strongly hints that, if transaction volumes do not increase, SOL price may find it challenging to sustain its current price levels.

Without a boost in transaction activity, this overvaluation could result in a period of stagnation or mild corrections in the Solana price, too.

Solana TVL: From $14 Billion To $7 Billion

Solana crypto’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is currently at $6.72 Billion, as reported by DeFiLlama. Since February 23, the network has struggled to reclaim the $10 Billion mark, indicating limited capital inflows into its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

Source: DefiLlama
Source: DefiLlama

The peak TVL for Solana crypto this year was $14.24 Billion on January 18, but it has since experienced a steady decline.

While Solana crypto continues to maintain a strong presence in the DeFi sector, the lower TVL suggests a sense of caution among investors.

SOL is Facing a Key Support Level

Solana price is currently testing a strong horizontal support area between $115 and $125, which has transitioned from being a resistance level to a support zone.

On a closer look at the Solana price chart, a downtrend line extending from $300 has kept its price in a bearish trajectory.

At this critical price point, the Solana price is forming a broadening wedge structure, indicating rising volatility.

Source: X
Source: X

If the SOL price breaks above the descending trendline, it could signal the start of a bullish trend, with $160 acting as the initial resistance level. A successful move past this point could pave the way for SOL price to reach $200.

Additionally, significant buying activity could propel Solana crypto back to its previous peak of $300. However, failure to overcome this hurdle may result in an extension of the downtrend.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

Share This Article