Costco (NASDAQ: COST) shares are trading at $986.80 as of February 23, 2026, with a modest intraday gain of approximately 0.16%. The stock has fluctuated between $978.10 and $991.00 today, reflecting steady investor interest amid a backdrop of solid financial performance.citeturn0finance0
Strong Q1 FY2026 Results Set the Tone
Costco’s fiscal first-quarter results, released in December 2025, continue to shape investor sentiment. The company posted net sales of $65.98 billion, an 8.2% year-over-year increase, though slightly below the estimated $67.12 billion.
Comparable sales rose 6.4% (adjusted for fuel and currency), with U.S. comps up 5.9%, Canada up 9.0%, and other international markets up 6.8%. Digital sales surged 20.5%, underscoring Costco’s growing e-commerce strength. Membership fee revenue climbed 14%, contributing to total revenue of $67.31 billion.
Despite the revenue miss, Costco exceeded expectations on profitability. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.50, beating estimates by $0.22, and net income rose 11.3% to $2.001 billion.
Analysts Weigh In: Bullish Views and a Rare Bearish Take
Most analysts remain optimistic. TipRanks reports a Moderate Buy consensus, with an average 12-month price target of $1,091.61, implying about 10–11% upside from current levels.
However, Roth Capital’s Bill Kirk issued a rare “sell” rating, citing concerns over weakening membership trends, rising competition from Sam’s Club and BJ’s, and demographic shifts such as smaller household sizes. He lowered his price target to $769, triggering a 2.7% drop in shares upon announcement.
Sales Momentum: Still Strong, But Some Signs of Cooling
Costco’s sales trajectory remains robust. In Q3 FY2025, net sales rose 8% to $61.96 billion, with comparable sales up 5.7% and e-commerce comps soaring 14.8%.
The Q4 FY2025 results mirrored this strength: net sales climbed 8% to $84.43 billion, net income reached $2.61 billion, and e-commerce sales grew 13.5%.
Still, some analysts flagged a deceleration in monthly sales growth. In November, comparable sales rose 6.4% overall and 5.9% in the U.S., down from October’s 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively. U.S. store traffic also slowed, rising just 3% year-over-year, compared to 3.7% the prior month.
Strategic Moves and Member Engagement
Costco continues to innovate its member experience. In Q4 FY2025, the company introduced exclusive morning shopping hours for executive members and an extra Saturday evening hour for all U.S. members. These changes helped boost weekly U.S. sales by 1%.
Executive memberships rose 9%, and total paid memberships increased 6% to 81 million. Membership fee revenue jumped 14%, partly due to a fee hike implemented the previous September.
Costco also continues to expand its physical footprint, adding 27 new warehouses in FY2025 to reach 914 globally, with plans for 35 more in FY2026.
What’s Next for Investors
Investors are now watching several key developments:
- Q2 FY2026 earnings: Will Costco sustain its sales and digital momentum?
- Membership trends: Any signs of renewal fatigue or continued strength?
- Competitive pressures: How will Costco respond to intensifying competition from Sam’s Club and BJ’s?
- Macro factors: Tariffs, inflation, and consumer behavior shifts remain critical variables.
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