Dogecoin Price Could Break Out If It Clears $0.23, Analyst Says

Key Insights

• Analysts like Ali Martinez predict a breakout to $0.30 if Dogecoin moves past $0.23.
• Exchange outflows could reduce selling pressure, but whale selling shows that caution is advised.
• A bearish wedge pattern could send DOGE down to $0.12.

Dogecoin price has been under pressure lately, after falling more than 10% in August. It trades near $0.22 according to CoinGecko. Analysts say the next move depends on whether DOGE can break above the $0.23 level.

Can Dogecoin Clear This Level?

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes a breakout above $0.23 is key. If it happens, the price could surge toward $0.30. He pointed to a recent buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator to support his outlook.

Some traders also agree. They note that a clean break above $0.23 to $0.24 with substantial volume could extend gains to $0.25.

However, others warn that whales tend to profit at the same level. If there is any change in Dogecoin’s strength towards the bearish side, DOGE could fall below $0.21 instead.

Whale Moves Show Uncertainty

The whales have been some of the biggest movers and shakers in Dogecoin’s price swings. Wallets holding $10 million to $100 million DOGE have dropped by 6% since late July, according to Santiment data.

Whale Alert also recently flagged a transfer of 900 million DOGE worth more than $200 million to Binance. Moves like these tend to kickstart fears of short-term selling pressure.

Some whales are also moving funds away from DOGE. Analysts say that this shows a lack of confidence in a near-term rebound. When big wallets sell during price declines, it usually indicates that they expect further losses.

Exchange Outflows Indicate Lower Selling Pressure

Not all metrics point to weakness, though. Many investors have been moving DOGE off centralised exchanges and into self-custody wallets. Data shows that in August, only five days saw more inflows than outflows.

This trend reduces the immediate supply available for sale. Historically speaking, lower supply on exchanges tends to support prices, since fewer coins are ready to be dumped on the market.

Crypto analyst Cryptoinsightuk jumped in on the conversation and painted a bullish picture for the market. He noted that DOGE currently trades between $0.20 and $0.24.

This means that a breakout above this range could push the price as high as $0.40 if strength continues to build. The reverse holds for a break below.

Network Activity Shows Slowing Demand

Despite the reduction in exchange supply, on-chain data indicates weaker demand. For example, daily active addresses on the Dogecoin network have fallen from 1.65 million late last year to around 58,000.

This decline suggests that fewer users are transacting with DOGE, which means low retail interest. Lower engagement tends to make it harder for rallies to sustain themselves, even when exchange data looks bullish. From a technical perspective, however, Dogecoin is testing a rising wedge pattern.

DOGE is currently retesting the support line of the wedge at $0.218. If it breaks below this level, chart patterns indicate that a severe drop could come after. The technical target of the wedge sits near $0.12, a 45% decline from current prices.

The relative strength index (RSI) also shows signs of weakness. After the indicator hit overbought conditions at 85 in July, it now appears to have dropped to 49.

Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

DOGE is now facing two major levels. On the upside, the $0.23 to $0.24 zone is vital for a push towards the upside. A clear break above it with volume could open the door to $0.30 and higher targets.

Over on the bottom side, however, support currently sits between $0.19 and $0.20. This aligns with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. If DOGE breaks below this range, analysts warn that the next stop could be $0.16 or even $0.12.