Just In: Metaplanet Shares Price – Technical Signals Clash with Long-Term Outlook

A glance at Metaplanet’s share price reveals a complex, shifting narrative. As of early December 2025, shares were trading at approximately ¥406, following a 3.3% uptick driven by capital structure announcements. This price reflects continued volatility amid the company’s evolving strategies in Bitcoin treasury management.

Capital Movements and Structural Shifts

Preferred Shares and Financing Innovation

Metaplanet introduced MARS preferred shares (Class A) in December, offering adjustable monthly dividends. This class sits senior in the capital stack, aiming to please income-focused investors.Alongside MARS, the MERCURY Class B preferred equity was issued in late 2025, raising approximately ¥21.25 billion (~$150 million) and offering a 4.9% fixed dividend with Bitcoin-linked upside.

Share Repurchase Strategy

In response to market undervaluation, Metaplanet launched a robust ¥75 billion ($500 million) Bitcoin-backed share buyback program, able to repurchase up to 150 million shares (around 13% of its outstanding stock), valid through October 2026. Despite this, no repurchases occurred in December 2025.

Capital Restructuring and Shareholder Flexibility

At a shareholder meeting held December 22, major decisions included slashing capital stock to ¥1, eliminating capital reserves, expanding authorized shares to 3.83 billion, and enabling broader issuance of preferred share classes. These changes pave the way for greater flexibility in future financing strategies, especially focused on BTC accumulation.

Bitcoin Treasury Growth and Market Perspective

Metaplanet’s commitment to Bitcoin accumulation continues unabated. As of December 2025, the company held 35,102 BTC, up notably after purchasing around 4,279 BTC that quarter at a weighted cost bringing its total Bitcoin treasury cost to approximately ¥559.7 billion. This next-level staking of digital assets drives its identity as a leading corporate Bitcoin holder.

Yet, this strategy has cost it in terms of valuation. In mid-October 2025, the company’s market-to-net asset value (mNAV) slipped below 1 for the first time — indicating investors valued the company below the Bitcoin it holds.

Analyst Sentiment and Comparative Valuation

Earlier in 2025, benchmarks were strikingly different. In June, analyst Mark Palmer of Benchmark assigned Metaplanet a Buy rating and a ¥2,400 price target — about 50% upside from its ¥1,650 valuation at the time. He acknowledged the company’s explosive Bitcoin strategy and likened it to “Japan’s answer to MicroStrategy.”

The Bitcoin Flywheel: A Strategic Framework

A structural rethink led to the creation of the “Bitcoin Flywheel”, a dynamic model for capital deployment:

• When mNAV > 1.0: issue new shares to buy more Bitcoin.
• When mNAV < 1.0: deploy share repurchases via BTC collateralized credit.
• Neutral phase: utilize non-dilutive instruments like preferred shares for yield generation.

This three-phase approach equips Metaplanet with flexibility to respond differently depending on market conditions.

Market Reactions and Investor Response

These active strategies and heavy BTC accumulation have led to sharp price movements. For example, back in late September 2025, the stock dropped ~28% in a month following a ¥553-per-share offering intended to raise ¥212.9 billion for more BTC buys. Investors reacted with concern over dilution, especially as outstanding shares ballooned from 57 million to around 459 million in a half-year span.

Later, in early December, stock rallied modestly when the MARS share plan and BTC accumulation targets (like 70,000 BTC in 2026) were unveiled.

Expert Insight

“Metaplanet’s flexible capital structure and BTC-backed instruments show a deliberate move to shape financing in a way that aligns with digital asset strategy, offering both stability and upside.”

This quote reflects the balance of capital discipline and ambition that defines Metaplanet’s current trajectory.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Forward View

Metaplanet is navigating an ambitious path — leaning into Bitcoin accumulation through innovative financing tools while balancing market reactions. Key points:

• Share price is volatile, influenced by capital actions and BTC moves.
• New preferred shares and a flexible “flywheel” show financing evolution.
• Persistent BTC accumulation has strengthened balance sheet but raised dilution concerns.
• Market perception shifted as valuation fell below BTC reserve value.
• Upside potential remains if Bitcoin performs and strategic instruments deliver as planned.

Looking ahead, keeping an eye on mNAV trends, BTC market conditions, and execution of preferred share programs will be essential. The needle here is whether Metaplanet can marry aggressive BTC growth with investor confidence and enduring value creation.